Afternoon Read Aug 31, 2010

Primary Trend=Down

Number of days=9

1st Target Level = 109  Achieved 8/12

2nd Target Level = 106  Achieved 8/24

3rd Target Level = 104.75  Achieved 8/25

4th Target Level = 101.40

AM Update Aug 31:  The Secondary has gained 42 ticks to -172.  To turn up, +2340 signal weight is needed.

PM Update Aug 30:  The Secondary gained 82 ticks to -130.  Some positive divergence showing again but it is way too early to identify conclusively.

AM Update Aug 30:  The Secondary has gained 30 ticks to -79.  The Secondary can turn up today if signal weight exceeds +960.

New 5 minute Delineator Trading Strategy Described in the Advanced Section

Aug 31:  2:50pm

Signal weight has reversed from this morning's strongly positive levels. 105.80 has held as resistance to an upside advance.  Signal weight is now weakly negative, the Change -35 and TTXSlope=2 bars at the current level.

Aug 31:  12:30  Slope Change Up Confirmed.

Aug 31:  12pm  Early Slope Change Up

An early slope change up signal has issued that will confirm at 12:30 if signal weight exceeds +635.  There can be no long signal today.

12:15  105.80 is an important support/resistance level as it represents the largest volume spike on the chart over the past 160 periods.  This level has already been tested and broken from levels higher.  Now, it is being tested again from below.  If 105.80 holds resistance and signal weight again turns strongly negative, the 4th target level becomes more and more likely during the next down cycle on the Primary.

Aug 31:  11:40

signal weight has held +1000 for the past hour.  TTXSlope=next bar if signal weight holds.   

Aug 31:  10am

Signal weight has reversed, now +450 and the Change +70.  If signal weight grows more positive, we could see a slope change up later today.

Aug 31:  Opening Read  Profit Target Achieved

The trading model has achieved the target at the open at 104.92.  Users had several opportunities premarket to improve on the exit price.

Signal weight has opened strongly negative at -989, the Change -2.  There is very little support for price between 104.90 and 101.40.

Aug 31:  PreMarket

SPY trading premarket at 104.70.  The model will take the opening tick as the exit price if it's below 105.02.  Users have the opportunity to exit the trade premarket at a higher profit if they didn't get an execution yesterday evening.

Aug 30:  Closing Read

Signal weight continued to become more negative as the day progressed.  Typical action following a slope change down.  105.79, the level of the largest volume spike on the chart (160 periods) has not held and should now be considered resistance.  The trading model is short SPY at 106.02 with a gtc exit at 105.02.  With price at 105.20, users short should make sure their orders are in after hours.

UPDATE 4:15...SPY just traded to 105.02.

Aug 30:  2:25

The slope change down confirmed at 1pm as expected, an enter short confirmed at 1:30 at 106.02.  The trading model is short SPY at 106.02 with a gtc exit at 105.02.  Signal weight has expanded more negative since the previous post.

Aug 30:  12:15

Signal weight -1222, the Change -88 and TTXSlope=next bar.  We should expect to see a slope change down during the next bar and possibly an early enter short as well; otherwise we will see the early enter during the 1:30pm bar if signal weight remains -1100 or more.  I am off to the gym early today...back around 2:30pm.

BTW, the 5m strategy has been working pretty well.  It's already achieved its profit target from this morning's short signal.  If you haven't yet spent any time on this, you should.  Access is through the Advanced page.

Aug 30:  10:30am

Signal weight became less negative during the first bar, but has since returned to strongly negative levels after testing the highs from Friday.  105.79 represents the largest volume spike near the current price level.  We should get an early slope change down and new short signal within 3 bars if signal weight maintains.

Aug 30:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened moderately negative at -709, the Change -135 and TTXSlope=4 bars at the current level of signal weight.

Aug 27:  Closing Read

Signal weight held +1900 and expanded further past +2100 following the previous posting.  Price has moved up into the gap area as Thursday's high was taken out.  This is the first time we've seen a prior high taken out since the 17th of August.  The Primary's now +1246 and rising by 650 ticks per bar.  With signal weight +2200 and the Change +16, signal weight will need to open strongly positive again or else the Change will turn strongly negative.  However, any slope change down will take several hours in this scenario.  If we're going to see a slope change on the Secondary that will maintain, not just flip up and then flip back down, signal weight will need to be positive for most of next week.

The purpose of the Delineator Journal is to introduce you to the Delineator Analytic so you may evaluate your level of interest. You are welcome to view these pages for that purpose.  The manner in which I present information does not purport to be investment advice or an advisory service.  The Journal and the "Plus a Percent" strategy described herein are intended to introduce you to the concepts and manner of application of the software so that you may evaluate its purchase for your own use.  I may or may not have positions in the securities mentioned on these pages.  There are many more applications of the Delineator than are described on these pages.

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