Closing Read Dec 31, 2009

Primary Trend=Up

Number of days=12

PM Update Dec 31:  SDuring the final 10 minutes, signal weight turned to -1036 turning the Secondary down.  As it was the final 10 minutes of the year, I'll ignore this until Monday.

AM Update Dec 31:  The Secondary is gaining 10 ticks to +83.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -1000 is needed.

PM Update Dec 30:  The Secondary lost 46 ticks to +70 as signal weight improved from the open's negative level.

AM Update Dec 30:  -1740 signal weight turns the Secondary down today.  At the open, the Secondary is down 92 ticks to +23.

PM Update Dec 29:  The Secondary lost 39 ticks to +110.

AM Update Dec 29:  The Secondary is basically flat this morning.  To turn down, negative signal weight of -2340 is needed.

PM Update Dec 28:  The Secondary lost 36 ticks to +148.

AM Update Dec 28:  The Secondary is gaining 12 ticks to +197.

Dec 31:  Closing Read

Looks like someone ran all the stops during the last 10 minutes of trading.  It would have to be the least liquid 10 minute period during the entire year.  I'd put this one in the 'ignore' category until we see what signal weight looks like on Monday as it's a real day.  I guess once in a blue moon....wait a minute...tonight there's a blue moon!  Happy New year everyone!

Dec 31:  12:30pm

Yawn....off to the gym. Back near 2:30pm.

Dec 31:  11:30am

Signal weight -338 and there'll be no slope change today if signal weight remains negative.

Dec 31:  10:30am

Signal weight now -105 and any slope change has been pushed out in time.

Dec 31:  10am

Signal weight now weakly positive at +437, the Change +57, TTXSlope=3.4 bars.  Signal weight tried to strengthen somewhat during the first half hour but has since declined.  Nothing to do but just watch.

Dec 31:  Opening Read

(Normal hours today, I mistakeningly said it was shortened last evening.)  At the open, signal weight +528, the Change +71, Slope -262 and TTXSlope=3.6 bars.  

Dec 30:  Closing Read

Another year end nothing day and I'm glad I played golf in the rain as it was a lot more interesting and fun than watching paint dry on Wall Street.  The value of the Primary is now +701, SW -334 and the Change +31.  With signal weight greater than +1000 tomorrow, we might get a slope change up during the shortened day but I would rather expect it on Monday.

Dec 30:  Opening Read

Signal weight -1277, the Change -60 and the down cycle continues as one would expect.  A middle short signal may be possible today if signal weight is -1740 or more.  I shall be away most of the balance of the day and will update after the close.

Dec 29:  Closing Read

Boring as one would expect near the end of the year.  Signal weight essentially even all day, slightly positive, slightly negative.

Dec 29:  10:30am

Dull Dull Dull...

Dec 29:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened modestly positive at +710, the Change +32, TTXSlope=6 bars.  Unless signal weight becomes more strongly positive, any slope change up will take many hours to develop.  As we have seen many times this year, if the Primary turns back up on itself from an already high level, it will set up a reversal back down in price as any move higher is obviously unsustainable.

Dec 28:  Closing Read

Signal weight could only get weakly negative today but enough to turn the Primary down.  Due to end of the year timing, we can expect volume to decrease and some moves to become magnified.  But signal weight is signal weight regardless so we should expect this cycle to complete itself on Wednesday or Thursday.

Dec 28:  2:30pm

Signal weight weakly negative at -251, the Change -27 and the morning's opening gap has been filled.  There's another gap at 112.08 and a major gap at 110.28-110.75 all of which make good downside targets.  We should expect to see the Primary go through a normal cycle and reach -5000 over the next two days at the least unless signal weight turns very strongly positive.

Dec 28:  12:30pm

Signal weight weakly positive at +87 and I'm off to the gym to work off some of the holiday cheer I've accumulated (sic).

Dec 28:  11:30am  Exit Long/Slope Change Down signal confirmed

The slope change down has confirmed, the trading model is neutral as the slope of the Secondary is up.  No short signal is expected.  For the next few bars it will be possible for the Primary to turn back up if signal weight rises above +1000.  If it does, it will be a fine reversal setting itself up as the Primary cannot sustain a rise from these levels.  Notice that the value of the Primary has been adjusted down due to the shortened day on Friday.  If you haven't updated your software yet, please do so now using the link above.

Dec 28:  11am  Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change Down signal issued

The Early Exit signal has issued that will confirm at 11:30 if signal weight is less than +400.

Dec 28:  10:30am

Signal weight +224, the Change -50 and Slope 36.  An early exit long/ early slope change down signal will issue this bar if signal weight is -500 or more, otherwise we'll get the signal during the next bar at the current level of signal weight.

Dec 28:  10am

Signal weight has moderated somewhat to +737, the Change -32, TTXSlope=3.5 bars.

Dec 28:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened +1022, the Change -23, TTXSlope=7 bars.  A new updated version of the software will be available shortly that will fix the blank time periods.

Dec 24:  Closing Read

For the shortened day, signal weight closed very strongly positive, the Change essentially zero.  With the Primary now at +9458 (+12200 old) it's now in overextended territory.  We should expect a slope change down on Monday as any further gains from here in price will be unsustainable setting up a reversal.

The purpose of the Delineator Journal is to introduce you to the Delineator Analytic so you may evaluate your level of interest. You are welcome to view these pages for that purpose.  The manner in which I present information does not purport to be investment advice or an advisory service.  The Journal and the "Plus a Percent" strategy described herein are intended to introduce you to the concepts and manner of application of the software so that you may evaluate its purchase for your own use.  There are many more applications of the Delineator than are described on these pages.

The Delineator Journal and all material shown on this website is published by HCMI and may not be reproduced, disseminated, or distributed, in part or in whole, by any means, outside of the recipient's organization without express written authorization from HCMI. It is a violation of federal copyright law to reproduce all or part of this publication or its contents by any means. This material does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or investments. The opinions expressed herein are based on publicly available information and are considered reliable. However, HCMI makes NO WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS OF ANY SORT with respect to this report. Any person using this material does so solely at their own risk and HCMI and/or its employees shall be under no liability whatsoever in any respect thereof.