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Dec
4: Closing Read
We can
expect a slope change down on Monday as the level of the Primary
is now approaching extended levels. The increase in volatility
on Friday was a function of exogenous events.
Dec
4: 12:45pm
Signal
weight again starting to build and the first tee beckons.
Dec
4: 12pm
Very
dicey here folks. I'd think as long as signal weight remains
positive, we'll get some kind of a bounce back near the bottom of
the gap...111.17. This isn't a normal market and all things
being equal, I'd prefer to wait for a normal cycle to complete...I'm
doing nothing and may just go play golf and come back next week.
Dec
4: 11:40
They've
filled the gap, price and signal weight collapsing. The Change
now negative.
Dec
4: 11am Enter Long Signal Confirmed
The
enter long has confirmed. This is going to be a difficult
call here folks. As long as signal weight remains very strongly
positive, if we fill the gap to 111.18. I would expect at least
1 snap back rally to the midlevel of the day thus far.
Dec
4: 10:30am Slope Change Up confirmed, Early Enter Long
signal issued
Signal
weight will need to exceed +1275 this bar for the enter long to
confirm.
Dec
4: 10am Early Slope Change Up Signal issued
An early
slope change up signal has issued that will confirm at the end of
this bar if signal weight is greater than +1140. Any long
signal that triggers should be carefully considered given the extent
of the morning price rise and the fact that the Primary is bending
back upon itself at a high level.
Dec
4: Opening Read
Nice
to see we woke up on Planet Gap again. Exogenous events pushing
signal weight to extreme levels at +2175 and we can expect a slope
change up and long signal within an hour.
Dec
3: Closing Read
As I
posted on the opening read, signal weight never stayed positive
enough to keep the Primary rising, hence price could not sustain
any advance. And even with positive signal weight (+200),
the Primary changed slope at 2:30 and an hour later price followed
lower almost filling the gap at 110.17. As you get to the
end of a cycle, and see price advance--especially through whole
numbers (112.0)--all the while the Change is negative, you know
it's a sucker move and can trade accordingly.
Tomorrow,
the Secondary can easily turn down and generate a middle short signal.
There's still a nice big fat gap between 107.87-107.40
from Nov. 9th.
Dec
3: 2:50pm Slope Change Down Confirmed at 2:30pm
Signal
weight remains weakly positive, a slope change down confirming at
2:30pm. The trading model is neutral as the Secondary is up.
A nice big fat gap waiting to be filled at 110.17.
Dec
3: 12:30pm
Signal
weight +354, TTXSlope=2 bars. I'm off to the gym, next update around
2:30pm.
Dec
3: 11am
Signal
weight a bit more positive, TTXSlope now 5 bars.
Dec
3: 10:30am
Signal
weight +209, Change -42, TTXSlope=3 bars.
Dec
3: 10am
Signal
weight has declined to +694, the Change -22 as short covering at
the highs probably was responsible for the first half hour's price
move. -1100 SW will turn the Secondary down. We should
expect a slope change down today or tomorrow at the latest.
Dec
3: Opening Read
Strong
positive signal weight has developed just after the open, price
testing the vast set of double chevron downs at the highs going
back to Nov.16th. The Primary can continue to rise as long
as signal weight remains this strongly positive. But we know
that we're approaching the ending phase of the up cycle and it would
be unlikely to see price sustain an advance above these
levels without some type of down cycle.
9:45am:
Price traded to 112.16 and the trading model has achieved
the target of 112.13.
Dec
2: Closing Read
Strong
positive signal weight all day kept the Primary rising and dropped
the slope value in half. The value of the Primary is back
to +5000. The trading model got to within 11 cents of the
target during the first hour of the day. Strong positive SW
will turn the Change positive again in the morning.
Dec
2: 10:21
I have
an obligation that will keep me away for the rest of the day.
Dec
2: Opening Read
No opening
gap? What planet is this?
Dec
1: Closing Read
Signal
weight held very strongly positive all day, the Change now only
+4. Same old story...big opening gap followed by strong signal
weight that cannot move price much higher (or lower) because there's
only so much move the market can make in a day...then no follow
through because the Slope's already reached a maximum. A truly
random pattern I suppose. At any rate, we should expect a
slow moving slope change down tomorrow with modestly positive signal
weight, a faster one with negative signal weight. Hard to
make a buck with all these gaps.
Dec
1: 2:47pm
Change
now +14. As with all signals generated with this level of
signal weight, the Slope reaches its maximum quickly. I'm gone for
the balance of the day.
Dec
1: 1:25pm
Signal
weight above +1800, price making new highs for this cycle. Sure
are a lot of double chevron downs at in the 111 range, very strong
resistance.
Dec
1: 11:15am
A good
use of the signal weight limits today is to set your upper limit
to +2000, and the lower limit to +1300. With current SW at
+1640, these limits will bracket the current level. As +1200
is the trigger for the Secondary's slope change, setting your lower
limit to +1300 will alert you prior to a possible change in the
direction of the Secondary.
Dec
1: 10am Enter Long Confirmed
The
enter long signal has confirmed at SPY 111.13, the trading model
is long at that price with a gtc exit at 112.13. The gap from the
25th has been filled already this morning.
Dec
1: Opening Read
The
slope change down has confirmed, an early enter long signal has
been issued that will confirm at 10am if signal weight exceeds +1680.
The Secondary is back up as +1200 SW is needed.
Nov
30: Closing Read
An early
slope change up was triggered during the last bar of the day. A
signal cannot confirm at the close, only just after the open after
at least 90% of issues have traded Positive signal weight
in the morning will for sure confirm the slope change up but we'll
need about +1400 signal weight to turn the Secondary back up to
generate a long signal. Frankly, I'd expect the gap from Friday
to close as the Dubai debt thing is of no consequence to US markets.
Nov
30: 2:50pm
Signal
weight remains modestly negative at -462, the Change now approaching
single digits at +19. Not much else going on.
Nov
30: 12:30pm
Signal
weight again moderately negative, any slope change up is still a
ways away. 109 was tested again and thus far has held. I'm
off to the gym, next posting at 2:30pm.
Nov
30: 10:30am
If you
look at your program, you'll notice on Friday that there's blank
bars from the early close to 4pm. Using your crosshairs, you'll
also see that the calculation of the value of the Primary continues
during these bars even though the market's closed. This is
a small bug that understates the value of the Slope and overstates
the value of the Change at the open today. In the past, I've
simply ignored this and gone along with the values as shown in the
program.
At this
posting, signal weight has turned weakly positive at +254. TTXSlope=3.5
bars.
Nov
30: 10am
Signal
weight -157, the Change +77, TTXSlope=5 bars. As Friday's
very strongly negative signal weight has turned the Secondary down,
no long signal is expected today if we get a slope change up on
the Primary.
Nov
30: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened modestly negative at -759, the Change +55. The
short signal that was issued on Friday is still active but I doubt
that any user, including myself, took the signal due an exogenous
event that was distorting signal weight.
Nov
27: Review
Exogenous
events are unpredictable and can distort the Primary. Friday's
shortened day combined with a major international news event has
distorted the level of signal weight. Typically, when something
like this happens, we cannot depend on the motion of the Primary
to act in its normal pattern. Users should either step away
and let things settle out, or else depend on some other manner of
identifying trading opportunities.
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