Closing Read Nov 27, 2009

Primary Trend=Down

Age of Current cycle=4 days

1st Target Level=108.93

2nd Target Level=107.19

3rd Target Level=104.89

PM Update Nov 27:  Due to exogenous events solely, the Secondary turned back down today.  Reactions to exogenous events typically reverse after participants have had time to digest the long term effects of such events.

AM Update Nov 25:  Positive signal weight of +620 is required to turn the Secondary up.  At the open, the Secondary has flipped up at +7.

PM Update Nov 24:  The Secondary is flat and will move in the direction of signal weight tomorrow.

AM Update Nov 24:  The Secondary is gaining 39 ticks to -45.  To turn up, positive signal weight of +240 is needed.  I've added downside targets for this current cycle today.

PM Update Nov 23:  The Secondary turned back up briefly today but has closed down, the 2nd day of the current down cycle.  Today's very strongly positive signal weight will reduce the amount of positive signal weight needed tomorrow to turn the Secondary back up.  All this flipping around since Sept23 is not a typical pattern for the Secondary.

AM Update Nov 23:  Signal weight of +1840 is needed to turn the Secondary back up.  At the open, signal weight is +2196 and the Secondary is back up at the moment.

PM Update Nov 20:  The Secondary gained 25 ticks to -99.  The Secondary is in a new down cycle.  Since Sept. 23rd, the Secondary has moved steadily lower with brief periods of flattening.  Overall, this tells us that more individual issues participate in down cycle moves than in up cycles--meaning that as price has moved higher, fewer and fewer issues participate.  This narrowing is a bearish characteristic.  

Nov 27:  Review

Exogenous events are unpredictable and can distort the Primary.  Friday's shortened day combined with a major international news event has distorted the level of signal weight.  Typically, when something like this happens, we cannot depend on the motion of the Primary to act in its normal pattern.  Users should either step away and let things settle out, or else depend on some other manner of identifying trading opportunities.

Nov 25:  10am

An early slope change up signal has now issued that will confirm at 10:30am if signal weight is greater than +260.  With signal weight at +864, the Secondary is also up hence a long signal is also possible today.  This is my last posting today as I'm off to the golf course.  Have a happy Thanksgiving all!!

Nov 25:  Opening Read

At the open, signal weight is flipping around near +600.  An early enter short signal was issued at the open but has since disappeared as the Secondary has already flipped up, then down, then up again and the Slope value isn't near -75.

Nov 24:  Closing Read

The enter short signal never confirmed as signal weight became just enough less negative to keep the Slope value less than -75 where it needed to be to confirm.  More strongly negative weight tomorrow will confirm the signal, positive signal weight will turn the Primary back up.

Nov 24:   2:15pm

I'm leaving for the balance of the trading day.  My guess is that this short signal doesn't confirm at 2:30, but maybe at 3. Signal weight has to turn and it hasn't yet.  I'll update later this evening.

Nov 24:  2pm Early Enter Short signal issued

An early enter short signal has been issued.  To confirm at 2:30, signal weight will need to be greater than -800.

Nov 24:  1:30pm  Exit Long / Slope Change Down signal confirmed

The signal confirmed but my program locked and did not send out any email.  If anyone's program did not trigger an exit long, please send me an email. An early enter short signal will most likely issue within a few bars if signal weight remains where it is currently.

Nov 24:  1pm  Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change Down signal issued

As expected, the early slope change down signal has issued which will confirm at 1:30pm if signal weight is >-620.

Nov 24:  12:50

An early exit long/early slope change down signal is expected in 10 minutes at the next bar.

Nov 24:  11:15am

Price has recovered somewhat near the opening levels of the day as signal weight moderated to -750+- then turned back down.  A slope change down and possible short signal are still about two hours away.  TTXSlope=2.44

Nov 24:  10am

Signal weight has turned strongly negative at -1402, TTXSlope=2.86 bars.  The multiple sets of double chevrons up on the 20th, 19th and 13th of November in the 109 range are very important.  If this level is broken, more sustained downside and an acceleration of the current down cycle on the Secondary will ensue. 

Nov 24:  Opening Read

Signal weight opened modestly negative at -567, the Change -116, TTXSlope=5 bars at the current level of signal weight.

Nov 23:  Closing Read

The problem with very strong signal weight at the time of a slope change is that it eats up the Change number very quickly resulting in shorter cycles.  Add to that a huge opening gap and where's it going to go?  As long as the Primary is up, we still should expect a retest of the highs, but it will take another day of positive signal weight to do it, otherwise with even modestly negative signal weight we should expect a slope change down late tomorrow.  

Tuesday effectively is the last day of trading this week; Wednesday will be over by noon eastern, Friday is a half day.  I'm planning on taking this time off and I recommend you do as well.  The market will still be here next week.

Nov 23:  2:20pm

Signal weight +1591, the Change +7.  Price is back to the opening levels of the day.  With the Change near zero, even with the strongly positive signal weight, we can no longer count on a bounce back near the highs.  The signal is out of confirmation as the Secondary is back down.

Nov 23:  12pm

Signal weight +1950, the Change +60.  SPY has traded out 1/2 of the first bar.  We should test the highs again today as long as signal weight remains +1600 or more.

Nov 23:  10:30am

Signal weight +2237, the Change very strong at +123.  Hard to believe we could rise much more today...at 2% it's already extreme.

Nov 23:  10am  Exit Short/Enter Long signal issued

Well, I guess I was wrong about the software being able to issue these signals today.  The exit short/slope change up has confirmed and the enter long has also confirmed without an early enter long...which works just fine for me.  The trading model is long SPY at 111.54 with a gtc exit at 112.54.  

Personally, I hate giant opening gaps like today's, but the model doesn't care.  I'd prefer to buy a pullback under 111.

Nov 23:  Opening Read  Early Exit Short

Signal weight +2177, above the +1840 needed to turn the Secondary back up.  Technically, we are in an early exit short, early enter long situation but the software will not show this exactly.  But we know that the Slope will be above +75 at the conclusion of the current bar.  

Nov 23:  Pre Opening Read

The market is trading up pre-open.  Hence, we can expect a triple signal during the first half hour...early exit short, early slope change up, early enter long (if signal weight is >+1400) as users can easily see by the Slope and Change numbers from Friday's close.

Nov 20: Closing Read

With the Primary now at -9656, (-12,500 old) it's fully extended down and we should expect a slope change back up on Monday with any positive signal weight.

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