Closing Read Nov 20, 2009

Primary Trend=Transitioning

Age of Current cycle=1 day

PM Update Nov 20:  The Secondary gained 25 ticks to -99.  The Secondary is in a new down cycle.  Since Sept. 23rd, the Secondary has moved steadily lower with brief periods of flattening.  Overall, this tells us that more individual issues participate in down cycle moves than in up cycles--meaning that as price has moved higher, fewer and fewer issues participate.  This narrowing is a bearish characteristic.  

AM Update Nov 20:  The Secondary is gaining 52 ticks to -125.  If it closes > -75 a down cycle will be reestablished.  To turn back up, positive signal weight of +1400 is needed.

PM Update Nov 19:  The Secondary turned back down today but at -73 not quite yet a new down cycle.  With the Primary nearing its negative extreme, positive signal weight will turn both Delineators up tomorrow.

AM Update Nov 19:  Strong negative signal weight of -1437 has the Secondary losing 85 ticks to -50, turning the Secondary back down.

PM Update Nov 18:  At the close, the Secondary lost 30 ticks to +30.

AM Update Nov 18:  At the open, signal weight is weakly negative at -354, -1000 signal weight turns the Secondary down today.

PM Update Nov 17:  The Secondary lost 40 ticks to +63.

AM Update Nov 17:  The Secondary is down 88 ticks to +16 and can turn back down if signal weight exceeds -1660 today.

PM Update Nov 16:  The Secondary closed at +101 and a new up cycle has been identified.

AM Update Nov 16:  At the open, the Secondary is up 85 ticks to +101.  If it closes today above +75 a new up cycle will be identified.  To turn back down, negative signal weight of -160 is needed.

Nov 20: Closing Read

With the Primary now at -9656, (-12,500 old) it's fully extended down and we should expect a slope change back up on Monday with any positive signal weight.

Nov 20:  12:15pm

Slowly the Change erodes.  I'm off to the golf course as I don't think there's anything to do today.  If anyone were short, I'd cover at the next spike lower, and for sure at the double up from the 13th.  I'll update this evening.

Nov 20:  11:15am

Signal weight holding at -1048, the Change +45, TTXSlope=8.5 bars or more than 4 hours.  The value of the Primary is now -7728 (-10,000 old)...so still very much a waiting game.  A break of 109 would most likely cause more selling pushing signal weight more strongly negative.

Nov 20:  10am

Signal weight back to -1227, the Change still positive at +46.  There's also a new double chevron up at 109.15.  If it breaks, it brings in the 108.66 double chevron up from 11/13.

Nov 20:  Opening Read

Signal weight opened at -1200+-, the Change +45 with a small gap opening down from last night's close.  As I write this, signal weight has already begun to reverse and now sits at -699, TTXSlope=6.3 bars, still some hours away.

Nov 19:  Closing Read

-1933 signal weight, the Change +17, hence any further declines in the current down cycle on the Primary will be unsustainable.  Tomorrow, we should see the Primary change slope up with positive signal weight and potentially generate a new long signal.  The profit target has not been achieved on the current middle signal and is still in effect.  We'd have to gap lower in the morning if this signal has any chance of working and even if this happens, a reversal back up is very likely baring exogenous events.

Nov 19:  2:30pm

Signal weight still holding -2100+-, the Change now +2 so we know the Slope has reached its extreme.  Any moderation in signal weight will begin the next slope change up.  

Nov 19:  12:30pm

The Change is now nearing single digits, but a slope change up is still a long way away.  I'm off to the gym, back around 2:30pm

Nov 19:  11am

Signal weight maintaining extremely strongly negative levels, the Change -46.  Once the Change flattens, most of the downward price pressure will diminish and some type of snap back price move will result.  The value of the Primary has now past zero and is in negative numbers.

BTW, 108.75-108.85 is the level of the next double chevron up from 11/13.  

Nov 19:  10am  Enter Short Signal confirmed at SPY 109.50

With signal weight -2190, it was obvious that a short signal would confirm, which is has.  The gap at 109.67 has been filled.  The trading model is short SPY at 109.50 with a gtc cover at 108.50.

Nov 19:  Opening Read  Early Enter Short Signal Issued

Signal weight has opened strongly negative at -1667, the Change -48 generating a middle short signal that will confirm at 10am if signal weight is greater than -480.

Nov 18:  Closing Read

Weakly negative signal weight dominated all day.  Thus far in this down cycle on the Primary, not much in the way of downward pricing pressure or negative signal weight.  Any positive signal weight tomorrow will turn the Primary back up and generate a new long signal; and with the Secondary only +30, strong negative signal weight tomorrow will turn the Secondary down and generate a middle short signal.

Nov 18:  1:06pm

Signal weight -713, could still get to -1000 and trigger a middle short.  I'm leaving for the balance of the day. I'll update later this evening.

Nov 18:  11am

Signal weight less negative at -317, the Change +10.  STS-129 a lot more fun to watch than the market at this point in time.

Nov 18:  10:15am

Signal weight more strongly negative at -877, getting close to -1000.  I'd be wary of a short signal today frankly.  Also, I'll be away from the system after 1:30pm today as I have obligations elsewhere.

BTW, STS-129 is about to dock with ISS..watch NASATV fantastic views!

Nov 18:  Opening Read

Signal weight weakly negative at -378.  The Secondary turns down today with signal weight at -1000 and a middle short signal will issue.

Nov 17:  Closing Read

Signal weight only weakly negative, the Change in single digits.  Signal weight will need to open negative tomorrow or we'll get a slope change back up and another long signal...very similar to the 11/06-11/09 period without the short signal.  

Nov 17:  11:30am  Exit Long/Slope Change Down confirmed at 110.71

The signal has confirmed and the Primary is now neutral, the trading model flat.  Unless signal weight exceeds -1660 today, no additional signals are expected.

Nov 17:  11am  Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change Down signal issued

The early exit signal has issued that will confirm at 11:30am if signal weight is greater than -860.  If the signal doesn't confirm this bar, it most likely will at 12 given the level of the Change.  Once the slope change down confirms, an early enter short signal will issue if signal weight exceeds -1660.

Nov 17:  10:30am

Signal weight has moderated somewhat but unless it turns back up positive, we'll get a slope change down today.  TTXSlope=1 bar at the current level of signal weight.

Nov 17:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened negative at -1193, the Change -165, TTXSlope=1.95 bars.  The trading model is flat as is our X trade.  It's possible there could be a short signal today if signal weight exceeds -1660.  There are 3 double chevrons up over the past two days that should contain a down move in price.  However, if 109 is broken we should expect the gap at 107.22-107.82 to be filled.

Nov 16:  Closing Read

Signal weight held very strongly positive all day, closing at +1867, the Change -12.  Tomorrow, signal weight will need to remain very strongly positive or else the Change will turn strongly negative and the next slope change will begin.

Nov 16:  12:30pm

Signal weight +1921, the Change +6.7.  We're at that point in the cycle that no further increase in the Slope can come as we're nearly at maximum signal weight already.  With the trading model flat, trading positions established on Friday should be exited as they rise (sell into strength).

Nov 16:  11:30am

Signal weight continues extremely strongly positive at +2117.  If today's opening gap on the Secondary holds (doesn't fill), it will be the 'measuring' gap which defines 1/2 of the move to the ultimate high for the cycle.  

Nov 16:  10am

Signal weight extremely positive at +2195 (+2800 old), the Change +55.

Nov 16:  9:43   Trading Model Profit Target Achieved at 110.96

SPY just traded through 110.96 achieving the profit target.  The trading model is now flat.

Nov 16:  Opening Read

Signal weight +1955, the Change +55 as price tests the highs at 110.60+.  The trading model is long SPY at 109.96 with a gtc exit at 110.96.

Nov 13:  Closing Read

An enter long signal was confirmed at 1:30pm at SPY 109.96.  The trading model is long at that price with a gtc exit at 110.96.  Signal weight closed strongly positive at +1370, the Change +30.

The purpose of the Delineator Journal is to introduce you to the Delineator Analytic so you may evaluate your level of interest. You are welcome to view these pages for that purpose.  The manner in which I present information does not purport to be investment advice or an advisory service.  The Journal and the "Plus a Buck" strategy described herein are intended to introduce you to the concepts and manner of application of the software so that you may evaluate its purchase for your own use.  There are many more applications of the Delineator than are described on these pages.

The Delineator Journal and all material shown on this website is published by HCMI and may not be reproduced, disseminated, or distributed, in part or in whole, by any means, outside of the recipient's organization without express written authorization from HCMI. It is a violation of federal copyright law to reproduce all or part of this publication or its contents by any means. This material does not constitute a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities or investments. The opinions expressed herein are based on publicly available information and are considered reliable. However, HCMI makes NO WARRANTIES OR REPRESENTATIONS OF ANY SORT with respect to this report. Any person using this material does so solely at their own risk and HCMI and/or its employees shall be under no liability whatsoever in any respect thereof.