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Nov
13: Closing Read
An enter
long signal was confirmed at 1:30pm at SPY 109.96. The trading
model is long at that price with a gtc exit at 110.96. Signal
weight closed strongly positive at +1370, the Change +30.
Nov
13: 1pm Exit Short Confirmed, Enter long did not
confirm
The
enter long signal did not confirm because at the time of the bar
change, the Slope was 74.83, just barely under the 75 needed to
confirm. Another early enter signal was sent out which will
confirm at 1:30 if signal weight is greater than +1060 (the Secondary
being up). This is my last post, I have appointments in a
few minutes that will keep me away the rest of the day. I'll
update later this evening.
Nov
13: 12:30pm Early Slope Change Up/Early Exit Short signal
issued/Early Enter Long signal issued
A triple
signal that will confirm both the exit and enter long signal at
1pm if signal weight exceeds +1600. If under 1600 but still
positive, the enter long signal will confirm as long as signal weight
is +1060 to turn the Secondary up.
Nov
13: 11:40am
Signal
weight has turned strongly positive at +1186, TTXSlope=1 bar.
Nov
13: 10:30am
Signal
weight waffling around zero. SPY broke 109 as signal weight
expanded negative during the last bar, but it didn't last. Signal
weight weakly positive at this post, +368, the Change +74, TTXSlope=4.1
bars. The value of the Primary is now negative at -264, down
from the extreme level 3 days ago.
Nov
13: 10am
Signal
weight reversed at 9:50am, now stands at -355. Any potential
slope change up has been pushed out later in the day, if at all
if signal weight turns more strongly negative.
Nov
13: Opening Read
Signal
weight +745 just after the opening, the Change +100, TTXSlope=3.83
bars. The Secondary opened up but has since turned back down,
the signal again out and in of confirmation. We
should expect a slope change up today unless signal weight turns
negative.
Nov
12: Closing Read
Signal
weight continued to get more strongly negative and closed at -1823,
the Change -25. SPY moved back to the initial short signal
price of 109 and has thus far held the double chevron level up from
the 10th. The value of the Primary is back near zero as well.
That opening gap from the 9th looms as a likely target if
signal weight opens negative tomorrow.
Nov
12: 2:45pm
Signal
weight -1602, SPY at the lows for the day at 109.27.
Nov
12: 12:30pm
Signal
weight has stayed at > -1300 now for about an hour, yet there's
been very little price change. The next double chevron up
is at 109+- which should contain price on the downside for today
unless signal weight exceeds -2000. The Change should reach
near zero in a few more hours. I'm off to the gym, back around
2:30pm
Nov
12: 11am
Signal
weight continues to waffle (or is it pancake) around. Now
standing at -624. The down cycle on the Primary continues.
11:11:
signal weight now -1049, the short signal is back in confirmation.
Nov
12: 10:30am
Signal
weight back again weakly negative at -295.
Nov
12: 10am
Signal
weight has reversed yet again and now stands at +326, the signal
back out of confirmation as the Secondary is now up. Signal
weight needs to rise to +1160 this bar to trigger an early exit
short.
I mentioned
earlier in the week about this down cycle and its 'character'. We
can see that, everything else being equal, signal weight is quick
to rise and difficult to fall. The surprise continues to be to
the upside.
Nov
12: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly negative at -1267, the Change -83 and
Slope -114. The short signal is back in confirmation as the
Secondary has turned back down this morning. The trading model
is short SPY at 109 with a gtc at 108.03 (don't like even numbers)
Nov
11: Closing Read
Many
apologies for being away all day. It wasn't my intention. Things
got nasty around here with the concrete and then there were other
fires to put out.
Signal
weight never got strong enough to flip up the Primary and end the
short signal. So the trading model is still short per yesterday's
signal. The Secondary also did not close above +75 on its
Slope. We're back where we were yesterday at the close. Once
again, depending on the level of signal weight, the Primary will
either continue lower or flip up.
Nov
11: 10am
They're
pouring concrete here today so I have to be away for awhile. Obviously
the Primary's going to flip up today and probably issue a long signal
as well. The gap from two days ago is a breakaway gap, the
next gap is the measuring gap which defines half way to the top
of the move which could be today if this morning's gap isn't filled
today. The Slope value of the Secondary is now greater than
+75.
Nov
11: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly positive at +1535, the Change +102, TTXSlope=2.79
bars.
Nov
10: Closing Read
Signal
weight moderated somewhat, closing at -520, the Secondary back up
and the current signal out of confirmation. It will take strong
positive signal weight tomorrow to turn the Primary back up, otherwise
we should expect the down cycle to continue for at least 1 more
day.
Nov
10: 3pm
Signal
weight now only modestly negative at -591, the short signal now
out of confirmation as the Secondary is back up. The
Change is also weakly negative at -10.
Nov
10: 12:30pm Enter Short Signal Confirmed at 109.00
By the
book, the signal has confirmed at 109.00 as signal weight closed
the bar at -1100. The trading model is short SPY at 109.00
with a gtc exit at 108.00. I don't like whole numbers so the
GTC will be at 108.03.
Nov
10: 12pm
The
signal did not confirm because signal weight was just barely under
-940. In my book, we should be short now at 109.25.
Nov
10: 11:30am Exit Long/Slope Change Down signal confirmed
It will
be interesting to watch this next down cycle on the Primary, whether
it completes a normal cycle. As traders, our assumption is
always "yes" unless it does otherwise. Trying to
'predict' what the cycle will be like is a waste of mental energy
and leads to...
11:33am:
...As I was writing, signal weight has exceeded -940 and an early
enter short signal has been issued that will confirm at 12pm if
signal weight is greater than -940, otherwise it will confirm at
the conclusion of any bar closing at that level of signal weight.
As the slope of the Secondary is flat, a short signal could
go out of confirmation. But the model is the model so....
11:38am:
SW -755, early enter short already won't confirm.
Nov
10: 11am
The
early exit long/early slope change down signal has been issued
as signal weight has moved to moderately negative at -775, the Change
-95. The signal will confirm at 11:30am if signal weight is
-460 or more. If signal weight exceeds -940, a short signal
may be issued as well.
Nov
10: 10am
Signal
weight -244, TTXSlope=2 bars. The Primary is now fully extended
on the upside.
Nov
10: 9:50am Trading Model Profit Target Achieved at 109.82
Signal
weight has turned weakly positive at +251, the Change -82. The
profit target of SPY 109.82 has been achieved.
Nov
10: Opening Read
Signal
weight weakly negative, the Change -113, TTXSlope=2.1 bars at the
current level of signal weight.
Nov
9: Closing Read
The
value of the Primary is now +8529, +11,000 on the old program, signal
weight is +1950 and the Change +6.6. A nice big spike up in
the morning would be about all the upside we can reasonably expect
from this cycle on the Primary given signal weight like we're seeing
today. Users long the current signal should watch after hours
trading for a possible exit.
Back
in July, when the second up cycle on the Secondary from the March
lows originated, I identified the top of the gap from Sept.2008
at 110+- was a likely target (as gaps always are). After that,
on the upside, the last upside target is the pre-Lehman level on
SPY: 125-131. I've placed the Secondary below so let's look
at that for a second. Switch your program to Secondary, numbars
at 300, from Chart Options uncheck the DelinFast so you're just
looking at the pure Delineator. From a portfolio point of
view, we can see that the last down cycle on the Secondary consisted
of two parts over two months. With a new up cycle very close
to being identified, the upside target is now these higher numbers--125-130
to fill the gap you see on your chart and what's covered up by the
chart legend.
Nov
9: 3pm
Well,
I guess this qualifies as the buying panic I suggested (jokingly)
last week. +2067SW=+3000 old, so virtually all S&P shares up
on the day. Today's opening gap may well prove to be another
breakaway gap. Either way, it appears the recent highs will
be tested.
Nov
9: 11:30am Enter Long Confirms at 108.82
The
exit short confirmed at 11am, the enter long a half hour later.
The trading model is long spy at 108.82 with a gtc exit at
109.82. The short signal lost -1.71 points.
Nov
9: 10:10am
The
data feed seems stable now. I'm going over to the developer's office
now to find out what happened. I'll be gone for about an hour.
An early exit short signal is expected at 10:30am. If
you're still having any issues with your program, be sure your dataslaves
are off...right click on them, select shut down.
Nov
9: 10am
Signal
weight very strongly positive at +1981, the Change +87 and Slope
-36. We're obviously going to get an early exit short followed
by an early enter long within 1 hour.
NOTICE:
Something just happened with the data feed that pushed through
bad times. PLEASE CLOSE YOUR PROGRAMS AND RESTART. MAKE
SURE BOTH YOUR DATA SLAVES ARE TURNED OFF AS WELL.
Nov
9: Opening Read
The
Secondary has turned up this morning as positive signal weight of
+1644 has turned it up. The Primary also will turn back up
today, TTXSlope = 1.47 bars. The current short signal is now
out of confirmation but an exit won't come until a slope change
up confirms. If it does, we can have a long signal today as
well.
Nov
6: Closing Read Enter Short Confirms at 1pm @
SPY 106.94
The
enter short signal confirmed at 1pm at 106.94. The trading
model is short at that level with a gtc exit at 105.94. Signal
weight has stayed weakly negative most of the day with the exception
of the first few minutes of the day. Monday, the Primary will
move in what ever direction signal weight opens as the Change is
already near zero with signal weight essentially flat.
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