Closing Read Nov 6, 2009

Primary Trend=DOWN

Age of Current cycle=13 days

1st Target Level = 102.76

2nd Target Level = 100

3rd Target Level = 98

PM Update Nov 6:  The Secondary lost 1 tick to -43.  Monday, the Secondary will be able to turn up if signal weight is positive.  With positive divergence showing (which it did not during the previous several cycles), the next up cycle on the Secondary should take out the last high.

AM Update Nov 6:  The Secondary is gaining 75 ticks to -120 at the open.  To turn up, positive signal weight of +880 is needed.  Turning up doesn't confirm a new up cycle until the Slope exceeds +75 (our new number).

PM Update Nov 5:  The Secondary lost 112 ticks to -44.  With moderately positive signal weight, the Secondary will turn up tomorrow.

AM Update Nov 5:  The Secondary is losing 88 ticks to -68 at the open.  To change slope, positive weight of +2820 is needed which isn't likely.

PM Update Nov 4:  The Secondary lost 31 ticks to -165w.  With signal weight closing weakly positive, it's doubtful the Secondary can turn up tomorrow.

AM Update Nov 4:  The Secondary is losing 94 ticks to -103.  The Secondary cannot turn up today as +3520 signal weight is needed.  It may be able to turn up tomorrow.  We're also seeing a hint of positive divergence on the orange line.

Nov3:   The Secondary lost 63 ticks to -197.

PM Update Nov 2:  Signal weight reversed from the morning's positive levels, the Secondary losing 42 ticks to -263.

AM Update Nov 2:  The Secondary cannot turn up for several days even with strongly positive signal weight.  It's losing 88 ticks to -217 at the open today.

Users need to adjust the DELN Settings that trigger signals on the Primary to reflect the lowered overall signal weight from the new feed.  To do this, select DELN Settings from your menu bar on the program, and change the Entry/Exit Thres spread required from 80 to 75.  Leave the compress required unchanged at 20.  Also, change your STATS Calculator to +-75 from +- 80, then after doing this, select Chart Options, and click "save current as default".

November 2:  Software Update

Nov 6:  Closing Read   Enter Short Confirms at 1pm @ SPY 106.94

The enter short signal confirmed at 1pm at 106.94.  The trading model is short at that level with a gtc exit at 105.94.  Signal weight has stayed weakly negative most of the day with the exception of the first few minutes of the day.  Monday, the Primary will move in what ever direction signal weight opens as the Change is already near zero with signal weight essentially flat.

Nov 6:  11:30am  Early Slope Change Down signal issued

The early slope change signal has issued that will confirm at 12pm if signal weight is +100 or less.  Remember, we're using 75 as the Slope value needed to confirm a short signal.  Be sure to check your "Delin Settings" on your menu and make the Spread Required 75, not 80 (which was the old number).  (Adjusting the Spread Required can also "speed up" a signal)

I have a meeting in a few minutes, but I should be back within a few hours.  Wish I could stay, so far it's an interesting day.

Nov 6:  10:30am

Back to scenario 2, TTXSlope next bar.  (There was no way I'd take a scenario #1 signal today.)

Nov 6:  10am

Signal weight +288, TTXSlope = 4 bars.  Stuck somewhere between scenario 1 and 2.

Nov 6:  9:45am

Signal weight reversed, now scenario 1 unfolding?

Nov 6:  Opening Read

After 5 minutes, so far it's scenario number 2.  If signal weight remains very strongly negative (>-1500), a short signal could come as soon as 3-4 bars.  TTXSlope=1.6 bars.

Nov 5:  Closing Read

Signal weight +1922, the Change -1, the value of the Primary +6702 (+8700 old) and the Slope rising at +454.  Tomorrow one of two scenarios will unfold: 1)signal weight opens +1500, the Secondary will turn up, a middle long signal will be issued and the Change (at +1500sw) will be a negative number, the Primary will be overextended within 3 hours, and any further gains will be unsustainable.  This scenario would also appear to be something of a buying panic which I am sure will thrill the media.

Scenario 2:  Signal weight opens moderately to strongly negative, the Change goes to -154 and it takes 3 hours +- to get a slope change down and any short signal will come later in the day.

(From a portfolio point of view, with the positive divergence on the Secondary, a better long opportunity would be the next slope change up on the Primary.)

Nov 5:  12:40pm

Signal weight holding at +1748, the Change only +4.  106.75 should contain any move higher unless signal weight exceeds +2000.  If signal weight closes above +1500 today, then the Secondary will be able to turn up tomorrow which would generate a middle long signal which would be difficult to want to take as the up cycle in the Primary would already be fully extended.

Nov 5:  10:30am

Slowly the Change is being eroded as the amount of positive signal weight needed to keep it rising increases.  I have an early meeting this morning, back around noon est.

Nov 5:  10am

Signal weight has expanded to +1796. the Change +27.  The next most likely signal is still a short.

Nov 5:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly positive at +1369, the Change +12.  The Secondary cannot turn up today so there's no chance of a middle long signal with the level of signal weight needed.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly negative, hence any further price rise from here is unsustainable in the current unconfirmed up cycle on the Primary.

Nov 4:  Closing Read

Signal weight reversed from this morning's strongly positive level, closing at +196 and the Change now -52.  Tomorrow, we'll get a slope change down and a new short signal if signal weight opens negative, otherwise it will take another day for a slope change to occur if signal weight remains positive.  It's doubtful the Secondary can turn up tomorrow and trigger a middle long signal.

Nov 4:  2:50pm

Exogenous event, typical knee-jerk reaction back in the direction of the Primary as signal weight remained positive.  The Change now in single digits with signal weight at +1294.

Nov 4:  12:10pm

Signal weight +1291, the Change +16.  Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change negative as will a few more bars at the current level of signal weight.  The next anticipated signal is still a short signal.

Nov 4:  10:20am

Signal weight has expanded further positive to +1780, the Change +81.  There is some positive divergence on the Secondary which suggests that the double chevrons up on the Primary at 103.40 may contain the lows for the current cycle on the Secondary.

Nov 4:  Opening Read

Signal weight is strongly positive at +1535.  The Secondary cannot turn up today, the trading model remains neutral.  My schedule has change and I will be around all day today.

Nov 3:  Closing Read

There were two slope changes today.  What is important to know is that after the first slope change down, signal weight never got strong enough to trigger an early enter short.  Another slope change up occurred at 2:30pm, the trading model remains neutral.

Nov 2:  Closing Read

Signal weight reversed from strongly positive and closed at +145, the Change +24 and Slope +50.  In the morning, if signal weight opens strongly negative, we'll get a fast moving slope change down and short signal within 1-3 bars.  You should recognize that with the numbers as they are, using your STATS window, you can see that -880, the Slope is 0, hence the Change would be about -50 (see that?).  While we would expect at least a 2 day up cycle, the force behind the Secondary has obviously truncated the last several up cycles on the Primary.  So, it's up to where signal weight opens.

As I posted earlier today, I will be gone all day tomorrow, leaving before the open.  So no posts until either late tomorrow or early Wednesday morning.  Don't forget the new software update link above.

Nov 2:  3pm

If signal weight falls to -1100 during this bar, an early slope change down signal will issue.  The down cycle in the Secondary continues to influence the direction of the Primary even with the slope change up today.

Nov 2:  2:30pm

Signal weight has reversed and a slope change down is possible if signal weight turns strongly negative.

Nov 2:  11:30am  Exit Short Signal Confirmed at SPY 104.92

The exit short signal has confirmed at 104.92 losing 92 cents on the signal.  The trading model is now neutral, the next expected signal being a short signal again.

Nov 2:  11am  Early Exit Short signal issued

The early exit signal has been issued, but it won't confirm at 11:30am if signal weight is less than +1140.  Otherwise, it will confirm at 12pm given the fact that the Change is so large at +94.

Nov 2:  10:45am

We're obviously going to get an early exit short/early slope change up at the end of the current bar with existing levels of signal weight.  Assuming signal weight remains positive, an exit short will confirm at the end of the 11am bar.

Nov 2:  10:30am

Signal weight +1582, TTXSlope is next bar for the early exit short.  Since the Secondary is firmly down and cannot turn back up soon, the trading model will remain neutral as it cannot generate any long signals.

Nov 2:  10am

Signal weight has reversed again and is back strongly positive at +1309, the Change +135, TTXSlope=1.5 bars.

Nov 2:  9:45

Signal weight has already reversed, now standing at -49, the Change +82. TTXSlope=4.4 bars.

Nov 2:  Opening Read

Signal weight +993, TTXslope=2.6 bars.  The trading model is short SPY at 103.96 with a gtc exit at 102.96.

Oct 30:  Closing Read

It was obvious that a short signal would be issued today.  With the Slope closing yesterday at +707, we knew it would take some time for the Primary to reverse.  It's always easier when after only 1 or 2 bars into the new day you get a slope change and signal, but knowing that a short signal was for sure coming and taking full advantage of this knowledge is what good trading is all about.  The trading model is a device, one way of learning how to apply the Delineator, it's not the only way.

This is a great week to review from the start of the week forward.  I encourage you all to reread the week.  The short up cycle I said would develop if our lower price targets would be achieved has, and sooner.

An enter short signal was confirmed at 1pm at 103.96, a gtc exit at 102.96.

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