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Oct
16: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at -1331, the Change now +18. The short signal
is still in effect and has not yet achieved its profit target. Signal
weight will need to open strongly negative on Monday or the Change
will turn strongly positive and begin the next slope change up.
Oct
16: 11:45am
I'm
off for the rest of the day today as I'm going to the Dodger playoff
game #2. BTW, notice on the new program that there was a short
signal on the 9th, no slope change on the 10th, and the current
short signal came a half hour later and at 109.03.
Oct
16: 10:30am
Signal
weight -2059, the Change -58. The short signal continues.
On Monday, I will be posting numbers and images from only
the new software.
Oct
16: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly negative at -1721, the Change -65. The
trading model is still short SPY at 108.88 with a gtc exit at 107.88.
The
new software is now available to everyone. You should have
received an email yesterday with a link to the site for download
and instructions. I encourage everyone to run both programs--the
old one and the new one--so that the differences in signal weight
and the other numbers can be adjusted to.
Oct
15: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at +26, the Change -23. The long signal ended
this morning and a new short signal was issued that went out of
confirmation within a few hours. As users have seen repeatedly,
when the Slope value of the Secondary is less than +- 80, there
is no clear trend. So what, if anything, should we think when
we see SPY rise nearly 9 points during a period when the Secondary
is not trending? It means that the trend in signal weight
does not support the current rise in price and hence price is not
following the motion of the Delineator: IE: price is being
pushed around by exogenous events and until the Secondary begins
to trend, price motion is random. The trend in signal weight
is what supports trends in price.
Oct
15: 2:40pm
Signal
weight -413, the Change +2--the Secondary back up and the short
signal out of confirmation. Per my previous comments, this
pattern of losing signals generated when the Secondary can flip
around is very important to consider prior to establishing any positions
per the trading model.
Oct
15: 12:20pm
Signal
weight now -786 and the Secondary is back fractionally up and the
short signal already out of confirmation. Again, when the
Secondary can flip around there's no trend and signals are more
risky. This is a clear pattern that we are now all aware of
and can use to our advantage.
I've
got to step out for the next several hours and I will be gone all
day tomorrow. Later this afternoon I will send out files to
3 users to begin to migrate to the new software and datafeed. If
you haven't yet sent in your phone numbers and mail address, please
do as the new feed requires this for registration.
Oct
15: 11:30 Exit Long Confirmed, Enter Short Confirmed
As expected,
both sets of signals confirmed at 11:30am. The exit long confirmed
at 108.88 for a 0.13 cent gain, and the enter short signal also
confirmed at 108.88, the trading model short at that level with
a gtc exit at 107.88. Why no early enter short signal this
time? Because the value of the Slope exceeded -80 at the time
of the slope change. Doesn't happen often but it did this time.
Oct
15: 11am
The
signal didn't confirm as signal weight turned less than -1500. But
the signal will confirm at the conclusion of the current bar.
I've
got the program email turned off because I'm testing the new software.
The
numbers shown below indicate that the exit long will absolutely
confirm at 11:30, and an enter short signal will also confirm at
the same time as long as signal weight is greater than -860.
Oct
15: 10:40am Early Exit Long Signal Issued
The
early exit signal has been issued as signal weight moved to -1531.
The early exit will confirm if signal weight is greater than
-1500 at the end of this bar.
Oct
15: 10:30am
Signal
weight -1379, Change -119, Slope +4.85. An early exit long
signal will be issued and confirmed this bar if signal weight exceeds
-1500, otherwise next bar for sure. And, if the Secondary
remains down, we could also get another short signal as well. Given
the fact that the Slope value of the Secondary can still flip around,
such periods generate lousy signals so users should be aware and
rely on their trading skills during such periods of time.
Oct
15: Opening Read
-860
signal weight turns the Secondary down today and just after the
open, the signal is out of confirmation. We can see that at
the current level of signal weight, an early exit long signal is
possible in 1.7 bars.
Oct
14: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed very strongly positive at +2068, the Change +22. Users
in the current signal should watch for after hours trading in SPY
as exogenous events after the close may move price to the signal
target of 109.75.
Oct
14: 12pm Enter Long Confirm at SPY 108.76
Probably
the worst type of markets to trade are those with big gaps at the
open accompanied by very strong signal weight in the direction of
the gap. We've seen this now over the past several signals
with most of the gaps due to exogenous events (earnings releases).
The trading model is now long signal at 108.76 with a
gtc exit at 109.76. Given the fact that the Secondary is still
below +80, we might want to be suspect or at least cautious for
the current signal.
Oct
14: 11:30 Exit Short Signal Confirmed, Early Enter
Long Signal Issued
The
exit short confirmed at 108.75 for a -1.7 point loss on the signal.
An early enter long signal has also been issued that will
confirm at 12pm if signal weight is greater than +1841. The
signal email did not go out because of the double signal--this has
been fixed.
Speaking
of the new software, I'm in the final testing phase of the program
which we should be distributing shortly. Over the next several
weeks we'll also be upgrading it a few more times with new features.
Oct
14: 11am Early Exit Short Signal issued
The
early exit short signal has been issued that will confirm at the
end of the current bar if signal weight is greater than +1780, otherwise
it will confirm at 12pm.
Oct
14: 10:30am
A little
mistake in my last posting regarding the timing of the early exit.
We'll most likely get it during the next, not this, bar.
Oct
14: 10am
Signal
weight remains strongly positive. The early exit short signal
is now expected during the 10:30-11am bar. As the Secondary
is now up, a long signal is also possible today, which, frankly,
I'd most likely avoid as well given the fact that the Secondary
is still not yet trending. But the model is the model and
it will get long if the signal triggers.
Oct
14: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened very strongly positive at +1868, the Change +135
and Slope -296. An early exit short signal is now expected
in 2 bars at the current level of signal weight. The Secondary
has also flipped back up taking the current signal out of confirmation.
Oct
13: Closing Read
With
signal weight at -645, the Change is +8.4. Tomorrow, signal
weight will need to open again strongly negative to maintain the
current down cycle on the Primary. The trading model is still
short SPY at 107.04 with a gtc exit at 106.04.
Oct
13: 2pm
Signal
weight stuck around -750, the Change now flat. Very dull.
Oct
13: 12pm
Price
has moved back up to the 107.40 area but signal weight has turned
only modestly negative at -524, the Change only -5.5 so no secondary
trade opportunity exists. The trading model remains short
SPY at 107.04 with a gtc exit at 106.04.
update
12:18pm: Signal weight -443 and the Secondary is up fractionally
and the signal out of confirmation. The fact that it is out
of confirmation does NOT mean to exit the signal. Only a slope
change up on the Primary can do that.
update
12:25pm: Signal weight -693 again, the signal back in confirmation.
Oct
13: 11am
Signal
weight remains very strongly negative at -1414, the Change -66.
Any move back to 107.40+- during the current bar with signal
weight greater than -1000 is an opportunity to establish a secondary
position to trade back to the lows of the morning thus far (106.80+-).
Oct
13: 10am Enter Short Confirmed
The
short signal has confirmed at SPY 107.04. The trading model
is short at that price with a gtc exit at 106.04. Signal weight
is strongly negative at -1545, the Change -102.
Oct
13: Opening Read Early Enter Short Signal issued
Signal
weight has opened modestly negative at -460 which is enough to turn
the Secondary down this morning and hence triggering an early enter
short signal on the Primary. -440 is the number that turns
the Secondary down. The signal will confirm at 10am if signal
weight is greater than -440. The Secondary can still flip
around today depending on signal weight.
By the
time I have posted this, signal weight has turned less negative
and already the signal may not confirm and the Secondary already
back up slightly.
9:45am:
signal weight has turned more strongly negative at -939 bringing
the early short signal back on.
Oct
12: Closing Read
A slope
change up and a slope change down. Good day for golf in the
rain. If signal weight opens strongly negative tomorrow, we'll
get another slope change on the Secondary and most likely a short
signal as well. Otherwise, expect more of the same as today.
Oct
12: 12:30pm Slope Change Up Confirmed
The
slope change has confirmed. per the previous comments, I'm
gone for the rest of the day.
Oct
12: 12pm
The
early slope change did not confirm as signal weight was less than
+1260. The slope change will confirm at the conclusion of
the current bar if signal weight exceeds +920. With the Change
only +16.7, signal weight will need to rise to greater than +2000
to get the Change a reasonably large number to support a +80 Slope
value. Bottom line for me, personally, is that if the Slope
does reach +80, the long signal will be a high risk signal. As
users have seen, signals that trigger when the Change value is low
often fail due to the typically short nature of that cycle.
The longer it takes the Change to reach zero, the long we
have to trade during that 'ideal' period following a slope change.
...and
since I'm playing golf today in a charity golf tournament, as Jerry
says, "I shouldn't trade when you're playing golf".
Oct
12: 11:30 Early Slope Change Up Signal Issued
An early
slope change signal has issued that will confirm at 12pm if signal
weight is greater than +1260, otherwise next bar. Since the
Slope value must exceed +80, and the Change number is now only +21,
it will take awhile for the Slope to reach +80 at the current level
of signal weight.
Oct
12: 10:20am
Signal
weight remains strongly positive at +1276. We're still about
3 bars away from an early slope change up.
Oct
12: Opening Read
Signal
weight +1378, the Change +49. There's obviously the possibility
of a slope change up in 2.7 bars and potentially another long signal
as the Secondary is back up. With the value of the Primary
nearing +10000, and the Change already a relatively low number,
a long signal today will be a challenge.
Oct
9: Closing Read
The
exit long signal came at the 12:30pm bar at 106.68. The trading
model took a .34 cent loss on the signal.
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