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Sept
11: Closing Read
The
Primary issued an early exit long that confirmed at 12pm at SPY
104.83. The trading model earned 30 cents and is now neutral.
Next week we should see the continuation of the down cycle
that began today.
Sept
11: 10:30am Last Post of the Day
Signal
weight moderating at +879, the Slope +33, Change -25. At this
level of signal weight, an early exit signal will be issued during
the next bar. Unless signal weight turns extremely positive,
+2000 or more, the signal will end today as the negative Change
will force a slope change.
This
is the last posting of the day as I have business away from the
screens. Give a moment of your time this morning to remember
those who lost their lives 8 years ago today. A number of
my friends who worked on Wall Street were witnesses to the event.
I shall never forget.
Sept
11: 10am
Signal
weight improving, now at +1233 which will extend the duration of
this signal. The trading model is long SPY at 104.53 with
a GTC exit at 105.53. At this posting, SPY is 105.22.
Sept
11: Opening Read
Signal
weight weakly positive at +479, the Change -53, Slope +66. Unless
signal weight turns more positive, an early exit long/early slope
change down is possible within one hour.
Sept
10: Closing Read
Multiple
signals today as the Primary changed slope down in the am only to
turn back up in the pm as extremely positive signal weight developed.
The trading model is long SPY at 104.53 with a GTC exit at
105.53. It's been awhile since we've seen the Primary flip
back up at an over-extended level. Signal weight will need
to be as strongly positive again tomorrow or another slope change
down will occur quite quickly again as it did this morning. At
the close, signal weight +2077, the Change +31 and Slope +116. A
flat signal weight opening will result in about -100 Change as it
did this morning.
Sept
10: 3:30pm Enter Long Signal Confirmed at SPY 104.53
The
enter long signal has confirmed, the trading model is long SPY at
104.53 with a GTC exit at 105.53. Obviously not the ideal
signal, but nonetheless a signal it is and the model is long.
Sept
10: 3pm Early Enter Long Signal issued
With
signal weight +1870, the Change +24, Slope +88, an early enter long
signal has been issued that will confirm at 3:30pm if signal weight
is +1700 or more. The trading model will take this signal
if it confirms.
Sept
10: 2:20pm
The
Primary issued an early slope change up during the 1:30pm bar which
has confirmed at 2pm. A new long signal is now possible. Signal
weight is extremely positive at +1815.
Sept
10: 12pm
Signal
weight +929, the Change close to flipping back above zero at -5.
It's unlikely we'll see the Primary flip back up on itself
but it is possible. Over the past year, when the Primary has
flipped back from over-extended levels, poor signals result. The
trading model is neutral.
Sept
10: 11am Exit Long Confirmed at SPY 104.11
The
exit long signal has confirmed as expected. Signal weight
is modestly positive at +589. The trading model is neutral.
Sept
10: 10:30am Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change down
signal issued
The
early exit signal has been issued and it will confirm at 11am if
signal weight is less than +1020. Signal weight is only weakly
negative at this posting.
Sept
10: 10:20am
If signal
weight remains where it is at this posting in 10 minutes, an early
exit signal will issue at 10:30am.
Sept
10: 10am
Signal
weight -410, the Change -95, Slope +7.8. Your STATS window
shows that an early exit signal will be issued this bar if signal
weight is greater than -580.
Sept
10: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened flat at -84, the Change -93, Slope +124. An
early exit long/early slope change down signal is expected in 1.3
bars at this level of signal weight.
Sept
9: Closing Read
The
trading model achieved its profit target this morning and is now
neutral. Signal weight was very strongly positive all day,
the Change holding around zero to -8 all day. The value of
the Primary is now in over-extended territory. It will take
equally strong signal weight all day tomorrow to keep the Primary
from rolling over. With the Slope now only -217, if signal
weight opens at zero, we'll get an early exit long/early slope
change down signal very quickly tomorrow.
Sept
9: 1pm
Signal
weight maintaining extremely positive at +1871, the Change -2.6.
The Primary's now +10691. Some comments on the Advanced
section relating to reversals.
Sept
9: 11:38 Trading Model Profit Target Achieved at 103.60
Signal
weight turned very strongly positive shortly after the 10am posting.
At 11:23am the profit target of 103.60 was achieved. At
this post, signal weight is +1793, the Change -2 and the value of
the Primary now +9784.
The
Primary will soon be in over-extended territory again. We
know that the only way we wouldn't get a slope change down today
was if signal weight continued to rise. With the Change essentially
zero, we know that any further gains in this cycle are unsustainable.
Sept
9: 10am
Signal
weight reversed after about 20 minutes and now stands at +793, the
Change -60. The stronger positive signal weight will push
out the exit long/slope change signal. The trading model remains
long SPY at 102.60 with a GTC exit at 103.60.
NOTE:
I have to leave this morning for about an hour or so.
Sept
9: Opening Read
Signal
weight -412, the Change -128. The Secondary will turn back
down today if signal weight is greater than -420. With the
Change now -128 and the Slope +334, an early exit long signal is
expected in 2.6 bars at the current level of signal weight. If signal
weight turns more negative, the slope change will happen faster
and a short signal will be the next possible signal.
9:42am:
Signal weight now -458 and the Secondary is now negatively
sloped.
9:50am:
Signal weight now reversed, stands at +259 and the signal
again in confirmation.
Sept
8: Closing Read
Signal
weight was strongly positive all day, closing at +2014, the Change
still negative at -6. The Primary issued a middle long Newman
signal at SPY 102.60, the trading model is long at that price
with a GTC exit at 103.60. Any moderation in signal weight
will turn the Change strongly negative.
Sept
8: 2:30pm
Signal
weight continues extremely strongly positive at +1889, the Change
-8. Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly
negative and begin the process of the next slope change. The
Secondary is now vulnerable to flipping around, generating both
long and short signals.
Sept
8: 1:25pm
Signal
weight +1670, the Change -18. The trading model is long the
middle Newman signal at 102.60 with a GTC exit at 103.60. Here
is a review of the X trade for those who have followed that
trade.
Sept
8: 12pm
Signal
weight still strongly positive at +1688, the Change -16. Seeing
some selling now on the Accumulator on SPY. For those following
the X trade, I exited the position this morning pre-opening (see
Advanced section).
Sept
8: 11am
Signal
weight very strongly positive at +1778, the Change -8. The
middle long Newman continues.
Sept
8: 10am Enter Long Signal confirmed at SPY 102.60
The
enter long signal has confirmed at 102.60. The trading model
is long SPY at 102.60 with a GTC exit at 103.60. This is a middle
long signal and a Newman as well. But the trading model doesn't
care about such things and is long regardless of if we expect a
signal to work or not. The signal can easily come out of confirmation
if signal weight drops back below +1120.
Sept
8: Opening Read Early Enter Long signal
issued
Signal
weight +1388, over the 1120 needed to flip the Secondary back up.
A middle long signal has been issued by the Primary that will
confirm at 10am if signal weight exceeds +1120. Since the
Change is negative, this is a Newman middle signal.
Sept
4: Closing Read
Signal
weight picked up at 12:30pm and closed at +2265, the Change +21.
The value of the Primary now +1323, up from -12k two days
ago. The extremely strong positive signal weight may make
it possible for the Secondary to flip up on Tuesday which would
generate a middle long signal. But for now our expectation
is still for another short signal.
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