Sept 4:  X and SPY at the close

X did not correlate to the S&P today and did not participate in the move higher.  There was a large buy spike early in the day and we can see the obvious accumulation.  I still have my sell limits in at 43.20 and I have not added to the position from two days ago.

SPY on the other hand had a large sell spike early in the day then the accumulator basically followed the price action the rest of the day.

Sept 3:  Closing

Well, we got an expansion in signal weight during the last half hour.

Sept 3:  2:44pm  SPY

Signal weight +935, the Change +1.3.  As I mentioned yesterday, the energy in the Change was mostly eaten up yesterday.  Now we're at that point again when it takes more and more signal weight to keep the Slope rising.  The influences of the Secondary, especially since it's so early in that cycle, is certainly being felt.  All things being equal at this point in time, the numbers tell me that it will take some exogenous event between now and tomorrow to keep the Primary rising.  Accumulator neutral.

Sept 3:  2pm X

Here's the 2pm picture.  Not much to see.  I have limits in to sell the position at 43.20.

Sept 3:  11am  X

Accumulator rising thus far today.  Smallish buy spike around 10:50am.  I have not added to positions due to the weak signal weight.

Sept 3:  10am X

Some accumulation on the drop-off at 10am.  

Sept 3:  Pre-Open X

So here's what the current X trade looks like loading X into the software.  We see that by pushing the button "trade without secondary" on the trade window show's that an enter long signal confirmed at 3pm at 41.88.  X is trading currently pre-market at 42.65.  So had we just waited for the system to generate it's signal, we'd could be selling now.  Trading in front of a signal always takes more time and adds more risk as we have seen from the posts on this trade from the last several days.  So the target at the moment is 43.40 which represents the average lows on 8/31.  Why this level when the two most recent double chevrons down are at 44.70?  Picking a target below where you may think it can trade increases the probability of being filled and leaves some money on the table for the next trade.

Sept 2:  X at the close

No divergences today, Accumulator just followed price, no major spikes either way.

Sept 2:  2pm

My back's tweaked at the moment which is why I am here typing and not on the golf course shooting a 76.  Looking at the Primary right now, we see that it's +88 and above +80 which would generate a signal if we trade without the Secondary.  But with signal weight moderately negative at -670, that doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling about the current strength of the up cycle.  We certainly understand how it got there but the fact remains that it's eating up the energy in the slope change.  Another reason why trading in the direction of the Secondary is always best as the surprise is to that direction.  

So, from the point of view of this position in X below, and no one sent me an email so I am assuming that you were all too set in your discipline to follow me along on this one (good), I'll continue with managing the position on these pages.  That being said, the reason why I have not yet added more to the position is that the signal weight obviously doesn't support the current trend.  At the same time, we respect the direction of the Primary and wouldn't dump the position now right at the bottom, would we?  But we should be set to act to buy into a large spike down to below 40 if signal weight turns strongly negative and a rout begins and ends.  Load up X in your program and you'll see where the obvious gap is and how low we could see X go.  And of course the upside targets as well which are now in the 43.25-44.70 area.

Sept2:  1:30pm

Is there any user in the X trade? If so, please send me an email.--sgh

Sept 2:  1pm

The exit short/slope change up has confirmed on the Primary and since I've already got half my position, I plan on waiting for the Slope value on the Primary to exceed +80.  +80 would confirm an enter long signal IF the Secondary were up.  Given the fact that signal weight is not yet positive, I shall hold my position and not add until I see some legs in the up cycle defined by strongly positive signal weight.

Sept 2:  X at 11:37am

Sept 2:  Opening Charts, X & SPY

X opened lower on typical selling on the morning after a big down day.  I added a little bit more at 41.38 to the position as the Change is a positive number bringing the cost down on the position to 42.98.

A couple of users have written in and ask "why would you start building a position in X when the Secondary has turned over and is only confirming long signals?"  Well...they are absolutely correct, why indeed and I, the purveyor of all of this, go against my own discipline?

The short answer might very well be "I have a death wish", but the real answer is I got into the trade and I'm going to manage the position until it turns into a profit.  It may take awhile, but with a stock like X there's never a reason to take a loss because you're down on the position if fundamentals support a longer term positive view and you've got enough funds to continue to work with it.  At the moment, my position is 2500 shares at 42.98, so I'm not too concerned.  

SPY chart a half hour after the open.

Sept 1:  Closing, X, SPY

Only spike on the day on X was a 40k buy spike near the close.  I had limits in to buy at 41.85 but they didn't fill.  Still long, average price is 43.39.

SPY Accumulator down on the day with large buy/sell on close orders showing during the last few minutes.

Sept 1:  3:15pm

Change now -15, no spikes, accumulator flatlining.

Sept 1:  2pm, X and SPY Charts

Still no big spikes on X.  Accumulator flat.

Not much doing here either.  Big sell spike about 20 minutes into the day near the highs.

Sept 1:  X, 1:17pm

Here's the 30 minute X chart on the Delineator (load X instead of SPY).  We can now see chevron down's at 44.70, double chevron up at 41.78 (about where we are at this posting).  A recovery trade to the level of the double up on the 21st 43.20-43.60 is the most likely level to see a bounce reach at a minimum.  This implies that, given no further decline below 41.70 that would last more than half a day, we'd need to lower our cost on the position to 42-42.20 to trade out at a minimum of 43.20 depending on what signal weight would look like and the Primary at that time, but that would be the target.

Since the Secondary has now turned over and just yesterday confirmed a new down trend, our overall view should be bearish as the trading model will only issue short signals.

Sept 1: X, 1pm

little bump, still no spikes.

Sept 1:  X, 12:30

No sign set of any buy spikes or accumulation in X today.  At the moment, I'm waiting once again for the Change to get to zero and start the process all over again.

Sept 1:  X, 11:30

With signal weight very strongly negative and the duration of the current down cycle on the Primary extended, we seem to have been too early in anticipating the slope change up.  Nevertheless, the down cycle will end and we'll have to wait to lower the cost on the position to a point where a recovery is likely.  Personally, I never allow myself to take a loss on a position when the Primary is close to concluding its cycle.  So, I will simply wait until there's another opportunity to do so as I do not mind holding a small position in X at a loss.

Sept 1:  X, 11am

Signal weight has eroded and while I still expect an end to the current down cycle on the Primary, it may be still a ways away.  More selling is shown on X and its level is back to yesterday's initial purchase area.

Sept 1:  X, 10:30am

Seeing a bit of selling in X, but with the signal weight strongly positive and a slope change just a bar away, I'm adding to positions here around 44.20

Sept 1:  X 10am

Since signal weight has increased substantially, we can now look to add a bit more to the trading position.  Since the actual slope change on the Primary is still about an hour to an hour and a half away, if we get a little pullback in X to 44.30+-, I'd add a little more to the position.

Sept 1:  X at the open

At the open, signal weight is still negative but with a strong Change we can now begin to project a slope change up on the Primary sometime today.  The next add to the trading position will not come until I can be sure that we will actually get a slope change up on the Primary and it's just too early in the day to predict that.  We need strongly positive signal weight to develop.

Aug 31:  X, at the Close

For the day, the Accumulator closed down a bit.  I'm long a little bit of X at 43.60.

Aug 31:  X

At 2:36pm picking up a little X with the Change -2.78.

Aug 31:  US Steel (3charts)

Here we see X on a 5m bar Accumulator from 8/19.  If you compare the level of the light blue line (main Accumulator) at the far left of the chart to where it ends, you can see it's obviously at a higher level (as is the price) over the period shown.  This is the pattern we'd expect to see if an issue is being bought on the dips more than it is being sold on the spikes.  We can see on the 27th the large buy spikes (see archive) on the 27th when the issue gaped down on the opening.  

The reason why it gaped down is not of interest to our analysis; how it traded after the gap is.  In this case, there were heavy buyers of the stock from the opening indicated by the rising Accumulator and over the pullback from the prior high at 46 on the 24th.  (you may want to use your other charting software to look at the overall price action from the lows identified by the Secondary Delineator.

Here is today's chart and we can examine the behavior of X during another gap opening down.  We see selling through the 11am bar and an overall rising pattern of the Accumulator.  No big spikes either way thus far today.  

Overall, I've been trading X from only the long side since the low's in March from 24.  Since then it has correlated well to the S&P with the surprise on the upside...meaning that it would resolve up from flat trading periods and showing Accumulation.  I start building a trading position when the Change on the Primary gets to zero.  So if ultimately I wanted 5000 shares, I'd start buying 1/3% of it as the Change got to zero on the Primary.  And as always, if I want something to go down, buying it typically results in lower prices and a better average cost on the total position over the next day or two before the Primary turns up again.  So the sequence would be about 1/3rd when Change turns zero, 1/3rd when we're going to get a slope change up on the Primary within 1 hour and signal weight is strongly positive and the final 1/3rd when the Primary gives a long signal.  That's the general pattern I follow.  But if I see a big sell spike down when we're quite far along on the Primary, I'll pick some off then as well.

So at 1:39pm with X at 43.60, I've already picked up a little bit and very close to seeing the Change reach zero.

Here's a long view of X. Those horizontal lines are drawn from prior sets of chevrons forward.  The last double chevron up is from the 27th at 42.  Last double chevron down is 46 from the 24th.  That's the range we're dealing with at the moment.  If the up cycle on the Primary begins on Tuesday, we probably won't fall below 43 if signal weight begins to moderate late today.  Otherwise we can expect to see the up cycle on the Primary begin Wednesday and our position in X will be built from lower prices.

Aug 28:  CIT, 11:12am, several very large sell spikes near the highs of the day

Aug 28:  CIT continues to show accumulation