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Aug
21: Closing Read
Signal
weight continued to expand all day, ending at +2429, the Change
-4.5. Today's strong move in price and signal weight was obviously
generated by exogenous events. Nonetheless, we can see the
Change flatlining for 3 days. Unless signal weight continues
to hold +2000, a slope change down is expected on Monday.
Aug
21: 12pm
I'm
finished for the day, so I'm 'outta here. Have a nice weekend.
Aug
21: 11am
Exogenous
events the cause of the big spike at 10am. Signal weight +2272,
the Change +13.
Aug
21: 10:15am
Somewhat
of a buying panic going on right now. Signal weight +2279,
the Change +25.
Aug
21: 10am Profit Target Achieved at 102.04
As unbelievable
as it seems, the signal has achieved its profit target of +$1 at
102.04. The trading model is neutral.
Aug
21: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened strongly positive at +1527, the Change -9. The
trading model is long SPY at 101.04 with a GTC exit at 102.04. Signal
weight will need to continuously rise all day for the Change to
remain near zero. Any moderation in weight will force the Change
to a strongly negative number and the process of the next slope
change will begin.
Aug
20: Closing Read
Signal
weight advanced and closed very strongly positive at +1793, a new
middle long Newman signal confirmed at 3:30pm at SPY 101.04. While
I certainly did not take this signal, the trading model is long
SPY at 101.04 with a GTC exit at 102.04. Given the Change
at +7, any moderation in signal weight will turn the Primary down
tomorrow quickly and generate a new short signal as well. But,
the model is the model so....
I've
opened a new section on the site for software users only. You
can access the Advanced section at the top of this page. The
purpose of the Advanced section is to introduce the Accumulator
to you to provide trading insights into market behavior on SPY and
other symbols (such as X). Please
email your questions/comments.
Aug
20: 3:30pm Enter Long Signal Confirmed at SPY 101.04
Signal
weight +1784, the Change +7. The enter long signal has confirmed
at 101.04 and the trading model is long SPY at 101.04 with a GTC
exit at 102.04 (because the model is the model and it doesn't care
if the signal's a Newman). Trading X rather than SPY is a
much better idea if one had to take this signal. (you might want
to read the Aug 18 comments)
Aug
20: 3:08pm
Signal
weight now +1640 and the early enter long a possibility of confirming
at 3:30pm. (Frankly, I'm not planning on taking this signal
if it confirms for reasons that should be obvious to all users by
now.)
Aug
20: 2:30pm
Signal
weight +1443, the Change -5.5. No enter long yet as signal
weight has not closed a bar greater than +1620. With the Change
now negative, signal weight will need to expand to keep the Primary
rising. Any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change
strongly negative leading to a slope change down. The value
of the Primary is now +3518.
Aug
20: 12:30pm
Signal
weight +1262, the Change -5. The early enter long signal is
still valid and will confirm at the end of any bar when signal weight
exceeds +1620. I'm off to the gym so the next posting will
be at 2:30pm+-.
Aug
20: 11am Enter Long NOT Confirmed, Early Enter Long
still valid
The
enter long signal has not confirmed because signal weight dropped
back below the amount needed to turn the Secondary up. The
early enter signal is still valid however and if at the end
of any bar signal weight is greater than +1620, the signal will
confirm at that time.
Aug
20: 10:45 Early Enter Long signal issued
Signal
weight at +1646, enough to turn the Secondary up (barely) and generate
an early enter long signal that will confirm at 11am if signal weight
exceeds +1620. This is, of course, a middle signal and nearly
a Newman in that the Change is +25 (a pure Newman would have the
Change at zero or a minus number.) If the signal confirms,
there are several chevrons down at 101.5 leaving less than $1 from
where SPY is trading currently at this post (100.87).
Aug
20: 10am
Signal
weight has expanded to +1269, the Change +9.
Aug
20: Opening Read
Signal
weight modestly positive at +546, the Change -24. The Primary
will cross zero in about an hour. To generate a middle long
signal today, signal weight will need to rise to +1620. Still
a waiting game.
Aug
19: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed +974, the Change -0.68. If signal weight opens
strongly positive tomorrow, we could see the Secondary flip back
up and this would generate a middle long signal. If this happened,
the Change would be a very small positive number and we'd get a
Newman. Negative signal weight will set up a slope change
down and another short signal.
Aug
19: 2:37pm
With
signal weight at +907, the Change is now -2. Signal weight
will need to expand, otherwise a test of the lows is coming.
Aug
19: 2:15pm
We can
see the Change now starting to approach zero again.
Aug
19: 1pm
Signal
weight now strongly positive at +1088, the Change +18. It's
very unlikely we'll see the Secondary turn up today, but possibly
tomorrow if signal weight is again greater than +1000+. This
would bring into play the scenario described in yesterday's closing
read.
Aug
19: 12pm
Signal
weight has turned modestly positive at +421, the Change -8, Slope
+342. Price has almost filled the gap from the 17th at 100.
Doesn't look like a slope change down today.
Aug
19: 11am
Well
this is certainly boring. Signal weight remains moderately
negative at -877 and an early slope change down is still more than
4 bars away. Good day to read a book and wait for the program
to issue a signal.
Or you
can watch snow melt at the north
pole.
Aug
19: 10:30am
Signal
weight moderating more, now -698, the Change -85, Slope +451. If
we get a slope change down today, it will come late in the day if
the current trend in signal weight continues. The Primary
is now -4988, up from -11,000 yesterday.
Aug
19: 10am
Signal
weight -1230, the Change -127, Slope +534. A slope change
still 4 bars away and longer if signal weight continues to moderate
from the opening levels. Price has covered the opening gap.
Aug
19: Opening Read
Signal
weight opened at -1554, the Change -163, Slope +652. An early
slope change down signal is expected in 4 bars and a new short signal
shortly thereafter.
Aug
18: Closing Read
Signal
weight very strongly positive all day, ending +2121, the Change
still +29. Another day of +2000 signal weight might just barely
turn the Secondary up and generate a middle long...would obviously
be a big stretch and set up a better short the other way as by that
time the Primary's up cycle would be exhausted.
Aug
18: 12pm
Today
pretty much unfolding as one would expect given the Delineator numbers
last night at the close. I would have expected the slope change
a bit later in the day, but either way a slope change and new unconfirmed
up cycle on the Primary was our expectation coming into the open.
Certainly, shorting or liquidation positions yesterday would
have been a big mistake from a portfolio or trading position (unless
the liquidations were covering shorts) given the strongly negative
signal weight and positive Change.
I'm
off for the balance of the day as I'm playing in a golf tournament.
Aug
18: 11:30am Slope Change Up/Exit Short signal confirmed.
Signal
weight expanded again during the last half hour, the exit short
confirming at 11:30am. The Primary is now neutral, gray color.
The top of the opening gap from the 17th is 99.95, which
would be the most obvious upside target for this unconfirmed up
cycle on the Primary. As the old saying goes "if
it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." (Joe Granville, c.1981
on his comments regarding the birth of a new bull market.)
Aug
18: 11am Early Exit Short/Early Slope Change Up signal
issued
An early
exit short signal has been issued that will confirm at 11:30 if
signal weight is greater than +1320, else it will confirm at 12pm.
Since the Secondary is down and cannot turn up today, no long
signal can be issued after the slope change confirms. For
those users following the trading model, you've got at least two
more days off until there can be a trading signal.
Aug
18: 10:30am
Signal
weight holding at +1440, the Change +178, Slope -150. The
early slope change/early exit short signal will be issued next bar.
Aug
18: 10am
Signal
weight has moderated somewhat, +865, the Change +178, Slope -354.
2 bars from an early slope change up/early exit short signal.
The Primary is now -11,725.
Update
10:09: signal weight has expanded back up to +1405.
Aug
18: Opening Read
Positive
signal weight of +1034, the Change +213, Slope -524. An early
exit short signal/early slope change up is expected in 2.4 bars
at the current level of signal weight. As the Secondary cannot
turn up for at least two days, no long signal can be issued today.
The trading model is neutral having achieved its target previously.
Aug
17: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed at -2930, the Change +12. You all know the drill by
now. The important thing to take away today is the fact that
the Secondary has closed below -80 and is now in a new downtrend.
Given today's negative weight, it will take more than 1 day
of very strongly positive signal weight to turn it back up. So
our expectation for the next signal would be another short signal
after an unconfirmed up cycle on the Primary which should start
late tomorrow or early Wednesday.
Aug
17: 2:40pm
Signal
weight is -2899, the Change +9, the Primary now at -9352 and falling
by 757 ticks each bar. Increasingly negative signal weight
is needed to keep the Primary from rising.
Aug
17: 12:30pm
Signal
weight still remains extremely negative at -2838, the Change now
only -2.3. Signal weight would need to advance to -3000 to
keep the Change a negative number. Any spike lower from here
in price will set up a reversal. I'm off to the gym, next
posting at 2:30pm +-.
Aug
17: 12pm
Signal
weight -2795, the Change -5. Any moderation in weight will
push the Change to a strongly positive number. With the Slope
-770, the value of the Primary should be near -8000 in a few hours.
Aug
17: 11:40am
The
Change should be in single digits shortly.
Aug
17: 11am
Signal
weight now -2810, the Change -17, Slope -753. The trading model
is neutral having achieved its target at the open. There's
nothing much to do but wait for the Change number to reach zero.
At that point any further decline will set up a reversal.
Aug
17: 10am
Extremely
strongly negative signal weight of -2629, the Change -23. SPY
has traded down to 98.24 which was just below the level of where
the negative divergence on the Secondary began. We know that
any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly positive,
hence when it gets near zero, any additional move lower will be
unsustainable during the current down cycle on the Primary.
Aug
17: Opening Read
The
open for SPY was 98.84, any GTC covers for last week's short signal
would have been filled at that price. At the open, signal
weight is -1887, the Change +5. The trading model is flat
having achieved its profit target at the open.
Aug
17: PRE-Opening Read SPY TRADING BELOW 99.07
SPY
has traded through the 99.07 profit target during pre-opening trading.
The trading model has executed at 99.07 achieving the profit
target.
Aug
14: Closing Read
Signal
weight moderated somewhat during the last hour, closing at -1848,
the Change now positive +5. This past week we've had
multiple signals that have been generated when the Secondary's slope
was less than +-80, most of which have been losers with respect
to the trading model (plus a buck). Hence, with respect to
the model, avoiding or trading for less can produce positive results
when the Secondary can flip around a zero slope. However,
the general price direction does continue to follow the direction
of the Primary, it's the duration of a signal that is really negatively
affected. The trading model is still short SPY at 100.07 with
a GTC exit at 99.07.
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