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July
24: Closing Read
Signal
weight turned positive during the 2pm bar and closed at +956, the
Change +30. The strength of the up trend in the Secondary
is expressing itself in signal weight's inability to stay negative
for very long. A slope change up and another long signal may
come sooner than Tuesday.
July
24: 11:30 Exit Long/Slope Change Down confirmed
The
exit long/slope change down signal has confirmed as expected. The
Primary is now in a new down cycle that should last until late Tuesday
unless signal weight turns strongly positive. The trading
model is neutral as the Slope of the Secondary is up.
That's
it for me folks...have a great weekend. I'll post a Closing Read
late in the afternoon.
July
24: 11am Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change Down signal
issued
As expected,
an early exit long signal has been issued that will confirm at 11:30
if signal weight is greater than -740.
July
24: 10am
Signal
weight now -1000, the Change -156, Slope +241. You know the
drill...Slope/Change=# of bars=1.5. Good day for golf or watch
those spacemen
at the ISS.
July
24: Opening Read
Modestly
negative signal weight of -682, the Change -162, Slope +408. Within
an hour the Primary will be above +10,000. Given negative
signal weight, an early slope change down signal will be issued
in 2.5 bars.
July
23: Closing Read
Extremely
strongly positive signal weight was seen all day. The long
signal issued this morning achieved its target in 3 hours and concludes
a week with two successful long signals. With the Change already
near zero, we know that we won't see another trading signal until
possibly Wednesday of next week.
So,
let's revisit the weeks ending June 12th and July 2nd, as now seems
an appropriate time to reinforce some very important concepts which
are key to your long term success in using my software and the trading
model.
First,
bring up your Secondary on your chart and change the NumBars to
be 100. Using your crosshairs, find the week ending June 12th.
What color is the Secondary? Blue, meaning the Slope
was less than +-80 and hence was in a transitioning period. Reviewing
the signals from that week, we see both long and short signals as
the Secondary frequently changed slope inter-day. The resulting
signals were primarily losers.
Now,
move along to the week ending July 2nd. You'll see the same
relationship. With both sets of signals, the final signal
worked because the Secondary was in a position that day to exceed
+-80 and confirm a trend. From the trading model point of
view, all that is required is for the Slope to be either positive
or negative to confirm a signal, so the value of the Slope isn't
taken into account--just its sign.
Several
users have written in over these periods and suggested to avoid
only those signals issued when the Secondary's value is under +-
80 (or very near it) at the time the trading model signal is issued.
This is a good plan and now that most of my users have experienced
several sets of up and down cycles on the Secondary, you should
intuitively know this is a valid reason to avoid a trading signal.
Then
it just comes down to patience and sticking to your discipline.
Watching price and reacting emotionally to feeling "left
out" is your greatest risk. Remember, you only need 3
net points a month to achieve a 30%+ a year return spending no more
than 4 or 5 hours in any one signal and the rest of the time away
from the market. Being able to predict the motion of the Primary
will allow you to predict what days you may be active and which
ones you know for sure you will not...like tomorrow.
July
23: 2:15pm
Signal
weight remains extremely positive at +2723, the Change +27. During
the 1:30pm bar, the trading model achieved the profit target of
+$1 at 97.81. The trading model is now flat.
July
23: 12pm
Signal
weight very strongly positive at +2540, the Change +60. SPY
very close to the profit exit target.
July
23: 11am
Signal
weight is extremely positive at +2316, the Change +65. The
trading model is long SPY at 96.81 with a GTC exit at 97.81.
July
23: 10:30am
The
enter long signal has confirmed as signal weight has risen beyond
+2000. The trading model is long SPY at 96.81 with a GTC exit
at 97.81 (increased limit from .90 to 1.0)
July
23: 10:04am Early Enter Long signal issued
Signal
weight has risen to +1583, the Slope +82, an early enter long signal
has been issued that will confirm at 10:30am if signal weight is
greater than +1530 (determined on your Stats window).
July
23: 10:00am Slope Change Confirmed
The
slope change has confirmed. Signal weight has risen to +1400,
+1530 is needed this bar to generate an early enter long. A
long signal is a bar or two away at the current level of signal
weight.
July
23: 9:47am Early Slope Change signal issued
An early
slope change up has been issued that will confirm at 10am if signal
weight is greater than +800.
July
23: Opening Read
Weak
positive signal weight of +237, the Change -6.8. +800 signal
weight is needed to turn the Primary up this bar. We could
go either way today as both the Slope and Change are nearly zero.
July
22: Closing Read
Signal
weight spent most of the day weakly positive, closing at +517, the
Change +8. Tomorrow, the Primary will move in which ever direction
signal weight takes it: Positive weight above +900 which generate
a slope change up, negative weight will continue to move the Primary
lower within the current unconfirmed down cycle.
July
22: 10am
Signal
weight now weakly positive at +181, the Change +23. It's possible
we'll get a slope change up today and long signal IF signal weight
turns strongly positive. This is the last posting for today
as I'm playing golf.
July
22: Opening Read
At the
open, moderately negative signal weight of -767, the Change -24.
The down cycle on the Primary continues.
July
21: Closing Read
Signal
weight never stayed very strongly negative for very long today.
At the close, signal weight was flat, the Change already a
positive number at +20. It will still take several hours
of very strongly positive signal weight tomorrow to turn the
Primary back up and generate another long signal--but unless signal
weight opens strongly negative in the morning, the process of the
next slope change up has already begun, at least a day sooner than
expected.
July
21: 2pm
I am
sure that most users have loaded in symbols other than SPY or SSO
in their programs. As long as the correlation between any
symbol and the S&P is close to 1:1, then you can use the Primary
to identify trades on such symbols. Also, be aware that a
single symbol may have a set of its own exogenous events that can
move the symbol at any time opposite to the index.
Take
X for example, seen below. If you load this symbol and examine
the trade window list simply trading from enter signal to exit
signal, you'll see for the month of July, it's netted 7 points (average
$35/share=20%). Normally of course, one doesn't trade from
enter to exit signal on SPY because there isn't sufficient range
on a percentage basis for such a strategy to work. So, I encourage
users to look at X or another highly liquid security as SPY
and seek alternative strategies if they want more action than is
provided by the trading model. Again, your success is dependent
upon your abilities. If you'd like to discuss this just send
an email.
July
21: 12pm Exit Long / Slope change down confirmed
at 94.64
Per
previous posts, the signal confirmed at 12pm. The trading
model is neutral awaiting the next probably signal--which of course
is a long signal after the Primary completes a down cycle. As
nothing more can happen today unless signal weight again turns +2000,
I'm off for the rest of the day and on the golf course tomorrow
(as you should be Jeff).
July
21: 11:45am Early Exit Long/Early Slope Change
Down signal issued
The
slope change will confirm at 12pm if signal weight is -200 or more.
July
21: 11am
Signal
weight +351, Slope +69, Change -43. An early slope change
down/exit long signal is expected in 1.5 bars at the current level
of signal weight.
July
21: 10am
Signal
weight has moderated to +197, the Change -67. The process
of the next slope change has begun which should be quite familiar
(if not engrained) to all users by now. The trading model
achieved a bit more than its profit target on the opening gap this
morning. We can expect a slope change down today in 2.5 bars
under the current signal weight, followed by a down cycle on the
Primary and another long signal possibly by Thursday or Friday.
For those following the trading model, you get at least 2-3
days off.
July
21: Opening Read
Exogenous
events resulted in another gap opening, this time above the profit
target. Per the pre-opening comment below, the opening tick
was 95.87 representing the closing of the position created yesterday
resulting in a gain of 1.11 points. The trading model is now
flat.
At the
open, signal weight is +1050, the Change -30.
July
21: 6:15am Pre-Opening Comment
SPY
is trading 95.90 in pre-opening trading. The profit target
of 95.66 is being exceeded. The trading model will sell the
position at the opening tick since 95.66 was not achieved in after
hours trading yesterday evening.
July
20: Closing Read
Signal
weight climbed all day and closed at +2139, the Change +30. The
trading model is long today's signal at 94.76 with a GTC exit at
95.66. Users are encouraged to enter after hour's limits to
exit the trade if SPY continues to rise after the close.
Exogenous
events have contributed to the very strong trend in signal weight
over the past week since the Primary reached a negative extreme
of -12,000 on July 8th. While the reason certainly doesn't
matter, being cognizant of the level and trend in signal weight
does matter.
July
20: 3pm
Signal
weight +1909, the Change +25, price testing the highs from the opening
gap.
UPDATE
3:18pm: For those in this signal with SPY, be sure to
re-enter an exit limit for after hour's trading if the profit target
hasn't yet been reached by the close.
July
20: 2pm
Signal
weight continues very strongly positive at +1774, the Change +28.
The trading model is long SPY at 94.76 with a GTC exit at
95.66.
July
20: 1pm
The
long signal has confirmed at 1pm at SPY 94.76. The trading
model is now long SPY at 94.76 with a GTC exit at 95.66. Signal
weight is extremely strong at +1791.
July
20: 12:30pm Slope Change Confirmed, Early Enter Long
Signal Issued
A dual
signal was issued at 12:30 which should have locked up your software.
The slope change has confirmed and an early enter long signal
has been issued that will confirm at 1pm if signal weight exceeds
+1435.
July
20: 12pm Early Slope Change Up signal issued
An early
slope change up signal has been issued that will confirm at 12:30pm
if signal weight exceeds +740. An early enter long signal
is still at least an hour away at the current level of signal weight
and Change.
July
20: 11:30
Signal
weight of +1620 is needed this bar to generate an early slope change,
otherwise it will happen next bar.
July
20: 11am
Signal
weight remains +1415, the Slope -58, Change +52. An early
slope change up is expected during the 11:30 bar unless signal weight
exceeds +2600 this bar.
July
20: 10:30am
The
bottom of the opening gap is 94.11. Signal weight continues
very strongly positive at +1506, the Change +65, Slope -105. An
early slope change up signal is possible during the 11am bar, but
more likely during the 11:30 bar at the current level of signal
weight.
July
20: 10am
Signal
weight has turned more strongly positive at +1781, the Change +89.
Exogenous events continue to drive signal weight.
July
20: Opening Read
Very
strong signal weight of +1575 at the open has the Change +91, the
Slope -253. An early slope change up is expected in 2.7 bars.
Remember, the Slope needs to be +80 to generate a long signal.
July
17: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained weakly negative most of the day, closing at -98,
the Change +7 and Slope -344. The Primary is now +7497 down
from +12,000 from the slope change down on Thursday. The clear
trend in signal weight this past week has been very strongly positive
driven by exogenous events. Next week we should see another
long signal.
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