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Server=216.23.226.207:23100 65535 01/01/1801 00:00:00 (cc11-hwd.esignal.com)
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65535 01/01/1801 00:00:00 (cc12-hwd.esignal.com)
June
19: Closing Read
For
the first time in many weeks, no new trading signals were issued
this week. The short signal from last week completed and achieved
its target this week and that was the only activity. The new down cycle on the Secondary is quite strong
if you measure that by the amount of signal weight needed to flip
the Secondary up. The current unconfirmed up cycle on the
Primary should end on Monday leading to a new short signal
mid-morning given any negative signal weight.
June
19: 2:30pm
Signal
weight has remained strongly positive until the 12:30pm bar when
the Change turned to zero. The value of the Primary this bar
has turned to positive numbers. We can expect a slope change
down and new short signal on Monday.
June
19: 11am
Very
strongly positive signal weight of +1730 continues, the Change +27.
This level of signal weight was needed to keep the Change
a positive number, otherwise we'd be waiting for a slope change
and short signal today. With the Slope at +550, the value
of the Primary will cross zero in a few hours probably at the time
the Change gets to zero. Our expectations should center on
the fact that the Secondary is down and the current cycle on the
Primary is just an upcycle within the down cycle trend on the Secondary.
I have
meetings this morning (not golf) so I'll post later in the day.
You should take the rest of the day off as well unless you
see an early slope change down emailed signal. If you haven't
set up your software to do that, now would be a good day to. From
the toolbar select Email, first set up your email servers, then
enter your email on the user list. Consult your current email
program for the proper configuration
June
19: 10am
Very
strong positive signal weight of +1689 has the Change +37. Likely
upside targets would be those two double chevrons down from 6/16
at 93.22. With such strong signal weight and a low Change
number, we can expect a slope change down on Monday or Tuesday of
next week. The Secondary needs positive weight of +4060 to
turn over.
SPY
went X-div by .51 cents today. When trading it is important
to know when a security goes X-dividend as it will affect your profitability.
If long, you get the dividend, the share drops by the amount
and you pay a tax on the dividend which (for you) isn't really earned:
it's a return of capital that you then pay a tax on. If
short, you must pay the dividend.
June
19: Opening Read
At the
opening, signal weight is +1535, the Change +39. Very strongly
positive signal weight will be needed all day to keep the Change
from turning negative. The trading model is neutral (gray
dots) awaiting the next short signal.
June
18: Closing Read
Click 'NumBars'
on your software and expand the timeframe to 250. Bear in
mind that the Secondary is now "spreading", meaning that
its slope is greater than -80, so a confirmed down cycle on the
Secondary or daily time frame. Identify 6/1 using your crosshairs
and notice the level of the top and bottom of that gap: 93.50--92.42.
Notice through 6/16, the 3 double chevrons up. These
identify that level as support..bear in mind part of the gap. Now
notice how we have 2 double chevron downs on 6/16..resistance at
the previous support level. Important!
Now,
find the two most recent double chevron ups..today and yesterday...support
at the bottom of the gap day...and where is price right now? At
the bottom of the gap..92.45+-.
The
point: Classical support and resistance levels are always
first held, then tested, broken, retested from the other side, then
either continue the current trend (if its strong) or reverse. With
the Change running out of gas, knowing it will take very strong
positive signal weight to keep it rising, a Secondary in a confirmed
down cycle...do you see where SPY is going next? First target
level on the Secondary.
The
question then is whether the slope change and signal come from the
Primary when its still a negative number. If it does expect
a more bearish move in price as the full effect of the Secondary
comes to play.
June
18: 2:30pm
Signal
weight is +644, the Change only +2.8. Unless signal weight
turns more strongly positive, the Change will be negative and the
process of the next slope change will have begun.
June
18: 12pm
More
of the same from the last posting. Signal weight +578, Change
+28. When the Change number gets close to zero, expect a break
back to the downside.
June
18: 11am
Signal
weight remains very flat after spending some time in modestly positive
territory during the last bar. Not much to do here but wait
for a stronger trend in signal weight to develop. No long
signal can be issued as it would take at least 3 days of very strongly
positive signal weight to turn the Secondary up. With the
Primary at -9200, we should expect that it will rise before turning
over and generating another short signal.
June
18: 10am
Signal
weight is weakly positive at +415, the Change +47. With
the Primary flattening out and at a very strong negative number,
it will take strong positive weight to make it rise. With
the trading model neutral we can enjoy a little break. The
next most likely signal will be a short signal next week.
June
18: Opening Read
Signal
weight is modestly negative at -564, the Change +3.5. The
trading model is neutral as the Secondary is only confirming short
signals.
June
17: Closing Read
The
down cycle on the Primary ended today during the 2pm bar. Negative
signal weight persisted all day eating up most of the positive value
in the Change that typically comes at the end of a cycle when the
Slope has reached its extreme. No long signal is possible
because the slope of the Secondary is negative and will only confirm
new short signals. Tomorrow, to continue up, the Primary will
need strongly positive signal weight, else the Primary will tend
to flatten.
June
17: 10:15am
Signal
weight is -934, the Change +22 and the Slope -113. Unless
signal weight turns positive, no slope change will occur today.
This
is the last posting until after the close. I'm busy with appointments
the rest of the day.
June
17: Opening Read
At the
opening, weak negative signal weight of -400 has the Change +50
and the Slope -93. An early exit short / early slope change
up signal is expected within 1 hour at the current level of signal
weight. Since the Secondary is down, no long signal will be
issued. The trading model is flat.
June
16: Closing Read
We expected
an exit short signal today ending the down cycle on the Primary,
but after getting within 15 minutes of confirming, signal weight
turned strongly negative pushing the Change to a negative number
and extending the downcycle by another day.
At the
close, the relationship between signal weight and the Change is
the same as yesterday's close: with any moderation in signal
weight the Change will rise quickly and a slope change up is expected.
Today's
strong negative signal weight also increases the negative slope
of the Secondary, making it more resistant to flipping back up again
as it has been prone to since May 15th. Remember, a typical
cycle on the Secondary is 4-6 weeks. The increased slope on
the Secondary will allow the Primary to go through an up cycle,
leading to a new short signal possibly Friday or Monday, sooner
if a more bearish scenario plays out.
June
16: 3pm
Signal
weight holding at -1645, the Change -18.
June
16: 2pm
Signal
weight has turned more strongly negative at -1670, the Change -27.
Price has made new lows for the current down cycle in the
Primary. It's also the first time we've seen the influence
of the Secondary extend a cycle since June 1st and is the first
time price has traded out of its range as well.
June
16: 1pm
The
exit short signal has not confirmed as signal weight has turned
negative enough to move the Change to negative numbers.
If you're
a user trading the model, today's action should only be of casual
interest and hopefully you're reading these comments after the close.
We knew there could not be a trading signal today because
of the slope of the Secondary. Hence, you should be not even
watching and doing other things.
If you're
not following the model, the same relationship exists right now
as it did an hour before the close yesterday. The price action
right now is giving you a second chance. Remember, we watch
the motion of the Primary and predict its behavior based upon the
signal weight and Change numbers. You know what direction
it's going to go. Now it's up to your skills and discipline.
June
16: 12:50pm
Signal
weight now -1050, the Change -5.0, Slope -13.43. The early
exit signal will not confirm in 9 minutes unless signal weight becomes
less negative at -760 or less.
June
16: 12:30 Early Exit Short/Early Slope Change signal
issued
An early
exit short signal has been issued that will confirm at 1pm if signal
weight is -760 or less.
June
16: 12:15pm
Signal
weight eroded during the final few minutes of the previous bar
enough to not trigger an early exit signal. Your STATS window
shows that +50 signal weight is needed to issue the signal during
the current bar. Signal weight at this post is -174, the Change
+46 and Slope -11.
June
16: 11:45am
Signal
weight has turned only modestly positive at +570, the Change +91,
the Slope -26. Positive signal weight of +1100 is needed to
trigger an early exit this bar. Unless signal weight turns
strongly negative within the next 15 minutes, an early exit / early
slope change up signal will be issued at 12:00pm.
June
16: 11am
Signal
weight +825, the Change +120, the Slope -108. At the current
level of signal weight, an early exit/early slope change signal
will be issued during the 11:30 bar.
June
16: 10am
Signal
weight +1066, the Change +171. Early exit short / early slope
change up in 2 bars.
June
16: Opening Read
We knew
yesterday that the Primary would begin to rise today per last night's
closing comments. Positive signal weight of +1024 at the opening
has the Change +194, the Slope -527. Hence, we can expect
an early slope change up / early exit short signal in 2.7 bars at
the current level of signal weight. Since the Secondary cannot
turn back up today, no long signal can be issued. The trading
model is flat.
June
15: Closing Read
The
trading model achieved its profit target on the short signal issued
on Friday during the first bar this morning. Extremely negative
signal weight was present all day. At the close, signal weight
was -2719 and the Change a positive number at +5.5. With any
moderation in signal weight tomorrow, the Change will turn strongly
positive and the process of the next slope change up will begin
anew.
At this
point in time there is no indication that the current range in SPY
for the last two weeks will break. However, the Secondary
is now back in a confirmed down cycle as its slope has exceeded
-80. With the Primary expected to complete its down cycle
tomorrow, the two Delineators are again opposed: one beginning a
new down cycle, the other about to begin a new up cycle. No
new long signal is expected tomorrow as the slope of the Secondary
will not flip up unless extremely positive signal weight greater
than +2000 is seen. But we won't know that number for sure
until the opening. Maybe we'll get a rest for a few days.
June
15: 3:15pm
Signal
weight at -2791, the Change -1.7.
June
15: 2:30pm
Signal
weight remains extremely negative at -2795, the Change now in single
digits at -6.7. We know now that any moderation in signal
weight will turn the Change strongly positive, and we also know
that signal weight will have to get even more negative over the
next two hours just to keep the Change at -6+-. Hence, any
further declines are unsustainable during this cycle on the Primary.
We see this relationship over and over and it is quite dependable.
Additionally, with the Primary now at -6500 and declining
by 725 ticks per bar, it won't be long until the Primary is over
extended on the downside as well.
June
15: 12pm
Extremely
negative signal weight of -2743 continues, the Change -38. The
Primary is now -2995 and declining by 636 ticks each bar.
Update
12:30pm: Signal weight continues extremely negative at
-2769, the Change now -30. The next posting will be at 2:30pm
(gym time). When the Change gets to zero, further declines
during this cycle on the Primary will be unsustainable.
June
15: 11am
Extremely
negative signal weight continues at -2706, the Change -58 .
So, once again price is at the lower end of the range over
the past several weeks and there is really nothing else for us to
do but wait for the next signal. Whether the Secondary can
sustain a trend (meaning the Slope remaining greater than -80) this
week and not flip around again seems more likely IF signal weight
can close today extremely negative.
When
the Change number gets near zero today, and if price is still at
or near the lows of the day, a larger reversal in price would be
the next logical assumption. The bottom of the gap from
June 1st is 92.42.
June
15: HouseKeeping Posting
I found
an excellent piece of software that will help you monitor your Delineator
program's connection to the proper datafeed. It's called TCPView
and it's from the Microsoft sysinternals.com website. It's
a small application that will show you the network connection your
computer is making. Shown below is my system. The orange
highlighted connection shows the Delineator connected to cc05-hwd
which is the proper connection. Sometimes the continuumclient.ini
file overwrites your server list and connects to faulty servers.
By monitoring which server is being connected to during the
day, you can assure yourself of getting the proper data. Download
here and an easy install. Run tcpview.exe to start the
program. It's also handy to have running when you're browsing
the net as it will show all the connections being made to your computer.
June
15: 10am
Signal
weight is extremely negative at -2353, the Change -66. The
trading model is flat having achieved its target during the last
bar. There are several double chevrons up in the 93.19 area
that defines the low of the range for the past week. Several
more hours of signal weight in the -2000 area will eat up the Change
fairly quickly. Hence, a slope change up would be expected
tomorrow given any moderation in signal weight...which would be
consistent with the behavior we've seen over the past several weeks.
June
15: 9:45am Signal Achieves Profit Target at 93.48.
Signal
weight is now extremely negative at -2049, the Change -64. The
Signal just achieved its profit target at 93.48 and the model is
now flat. Whether we break out of the two point range that
has held SPY for the past several weeks is purely a function of
the trend in signal weight. Until we can see evidence of this,
we can only still assume the range is intact.
June
15: Opening Read
The
trading model is short SPY from Friday's signal at 94.38 with a
GTC cover at 93.48. Strong negative signal weight of -1565
has the Change -41 at the opening.
9:45am:
Signal weight is now extremely negative at -2049, the Change
-64. Whether we break out of the two point range that has
held SPY for the past several weeks is purely a function of the
trend in signal weight.
June
12: Closing Read
Boy
I'm glad this week is over! Five signals! In a two point
range it's hard to make a buck. Interestingly enough however
is the fact that the net return for the trading model for the past
two weeks is zero (+3 last week, -2.97 this week). In a two
point range the fact that it didn't lose...
At the
close, signal weight was -537, the Change +12. The model is
still short having not yet achieved it's target.
NOTE:
Next Friday SPY goes X-Dividend by about 55 cents. We
cannot be in a trade when it goes X because if we're short we have
to pay the amount, if we're long we get it back and then have to
pay a tax on our own money. So regardless, no signal taking
next Wednesday on.
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