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May
15: Closing Read
An early
slope change down signal was issued during the 3:30 bar that confirmed
at 3:30. Signal weight ended the day strongly negative at
-1192 but the Change only -40. An early enter short is the
next logical signal that may be issued Monday morning. For
this signal to be issued, the Slope must be -80 or more.
May
15: 1:30pm
Strong
negative signal weight has developed at -985, the Change is now
-61, the Slope +168. An early slope change down signal should
be generated in 2.5 bars. For new readers, being able to predict
when a slope change can occur is a skill you must acquire to effective
utilize the Delineator. Slope Change in bars= Slope/Change.
As signal weight increases or decreases, it affects the value
of the Slope of the Primary.
This
is the last posting today until after the close. The automated
signal email system is on. However, software users should
already know how to follow the sequence of signals and when to initiate
a trade. Those viewing these pages over the past month and
understand what's going on here should request a software trial
and run the program in real time on their computers.
Have
a nice weekend. I'm off to the golf course.
May
15: 1pm
Signal
weight somewhat more negative at -819, the Change -63, the Slope
+236. At the current level of signal weight, an early slope
change down signal may be issued in 3.7 bars.
May
15: 12:00pm
Signal
weight has flipped negative again and now stands at -581, the Change
-77. At the current rate, we can expect an early slope change
down in 5.2 bars (Slope/Change=# of bars). At yesterday's
close, with very strong positive signal weight, the Change was only
+28, so we knew that to keep rising, even stronger positive signal
weight was required today. With a new downtrend in place on
the Secondary, we should expect a weak rise on the Primary as well
as in price...which thus far we are seeing.
New
readers should understand that we do not consider price action in
our models. Price is dependent on the motion of the Delineator
and should be viewed in that context. The Secondary tells
us that short signals will be confirmed, the Primary tells us today
to wait until we get a slope change down and a trading signal is
issued.
May
15: 11am
Modestly
positive signal weight of +524 has the Change still declining at
-24. With the Primary still many hours away from any slope
change (Slope/Change=# of bars=524/22=23 bars) an old Wall Street saying seems to apply today: "never
short a dull market". With the trading model neutral
there's nothing more to do but wait until we're closer to a slope change.
May
15: 10:15am
Those
crazy spacemen are at it again...a lot more entertaining that the
market today. View
NasaTV
May
15: 10am
Signal
weight is weakly positive at +135, the Change -50. The trading
model is neutral as the slope of the Secondary is down. The
next most likely signal will be an early slope change down although
at the current rate it will take 10 bars at least to get there unless
signal weight turns more strongly negative.
May
15: Opening Read
Signal
weight is basically flat this morning after the opening, the Change
-61.
May
14: Closing Read
We knew
yesterday that a slope change up today (exit short signal) was the
most likely scenario for today (read yesterday's closing read).
So we knew that once we had the slope change, price would
follow. Since the Secondary is down, the trading model has
not generated a long signal and we should expect the new
down cycle on the Secondary to continue for 3-6 weeks. We
should also expect stronger down moves, and weak up moves during this
period.
May
14: Slope Change Confirmed
This
will be the last post today as I must attend to other matters the
rest of the day. The trading model is neutral.
May
14: 11:30am EARLY EXIT SHORT/ EARLY SLOPE CHANGE
UP SIGNAL ISSUED
As expected,
an Early Exit Short/ Early Slope change up signal has been issued
that will confirm at 12:00pm if signal weight is greater than +400.
Signal weight has turned strongly positive at +1275, the change
+135. No long signal can be issued because the Secondary is
down.
Per
last night's closing read, users can see the relationship between
signal weight, the Change, the predicted path of the Primary and
the understanding of what direction price will move as a consequence.
May
14: 11:00am
Modestly
positive signal weight of +696 has the Change +127 and the Slope
-118. We can now project an early slope change up to be triggered
during the 11:30-12pm bar (Slope/Change=# of bars).
May
14: 10:00am
Signal
weight has remained in a weak range -400 to +100 during the first
half hour. The Change is rising quickly at +134. The
number will rise even faster if positive signal weight develops
later in the morning. We can expect a slope change up at some
point today. No long signal can be issued as the Secondary
will not confirm long signals presently.
May
14: Opening Read
Weakly
positive signal weight of +334 hast the Change rising +147 ticks,
the Slope -505. The value of the Primary is now -10,829 and
is declining by 500 ticks per bar. The trading model is neutral
having achieved its profit target on the middle signal a few days
ago. No long signals can be issued as the Secondary is now in a
new down cycle.
If signal
weight begins to turn positive, a slope change will occur quickly.
May
13: Closing Read
Signal
weight remained extremely strongly negative all day closing at -2888,
and the Change now only -1.8. We see the value of the Primary
is -10,321. Users should easily recognize that the pattern
of the Primary now suggests a reversal in price will occur quite
shortly as any moderation in signal weight will force
the Change to a very strongly positive number; and since the Primary
is now -10,321 and declining by -651 ticks at the close, that it
too is nearly overextended on the downside. Hence, we should
expect a bounce up tomorrow.
The
Secondary changed slope today and has originated a new down cycle.
With the Primary overextended and ready to rise again, we
can expect that the Secondary may flop around and change slope again
several times over the next week if signal weight also reverses.
So the next few days will be interesting from the Primary's
point of view as the two Delineators are in nearly opposite positions
in their respective cycles. The trading model is neutral and
with the slope of the Secondary down, only short signals will be
triggered.
May
13: 10:00am
Extremely
strong negative signal weight of -2331 has the Change -45. As
the Change number approaches zero, greater negative signal weight
will be needed to keep the Primary down and the process of the next
slope change back up will begin. The trading model is neutral
having achieved its profit target yesterday.
NOTE:
I must be away the rest of the day to catch up on my work
lost during the fire. The next posting will be well after
the close. Those of you using the software shouldn't need
many comments from me today to know what's going on. For new
readers to the Journal, sign up for the software trial please as
these pages are designed to help you learn to use the program.
May
13: Opening Read
Very
strongly negative signal weight of -1862 at the opening, the Change
-32. Positive signal weight of +340 or less is needed to turn
the Secondary down today which is obviously present as indicated
by the red colored Primary at the opening. The rather smallish
number for the Change is an indication that the movement lower on
the Primary will be slow. Any moderation in negative signal
weight will turn the Change back up.
May
12: Closing Read
A middle
short signal was issued during the day during the period the Secondary's
slope was negative. The short signal came in at 90.75 and
achieved its profit target of +.90 cents (plus 1%) late in the day
(just barely) at 89.85. By the end of the day, signal weight
became less negative at -590 resulting in the slope of the Secondary
closing up and out of confirmation of the current signal (gray color
of the Primary). The Change was positive all day long indicating
that the downward move in the Primary was reversing. At the
close, signal weight was -590, the Change +36 and the Slope -321.
The value of the Primary is now -3126. Given even modestly
positive signal weight tomorrow, a slope change back up and a long
signal are possible.
NOTE:
Due to the fire, I will be away from the Journal most of the
day tomorrow. Those who have been following these pages and
haven't yet signed up for the software trial should consider doing
so to be able to run the program in real time and not be dependent
on my posts.
May
12: 3pm
Signal
weight has turned less negative at -553 and the signal has moved
out of confirmation as indicated by the gray color of the Primary.
The middle signal did make its profit target at 89.85 and
the trading model is now neutral.
May
12: 2:48pm
(sorry
to be away, insurance adjuster here all morning)
Strong
negative signal weight has persisted all day as has a positive Change
number. At this posting it appears the profit target of 89.85
was reached during the 1:30pm bar.
May
12: 12:00pm
Signal
weight remains strongly negative at -1005, the Change +14. The
value of the Primary has now declined past zero and is -139, falling
438 ticks each bar. The trading model is short the middle
signal on SPY at 90.75 with a GTC cover at 89.85 (.90 cents 1%).
May
12: 11am
POP
QUIZ: What is the basis for measuring risk in a Delineator
signal? Answer: The Change number. Why? Because
the value of the Change confirms the strength of the Primary's move
in any direction. We know the Change is a function of signal
weight, and that if the Change is a high value then the direction
of the Primary at that time is certain. When the Change number
is a low value, we know that the direction of the Primary is less
certain. The Delineator process identifies those points in
time when the motion of the Primary is a certainty to continue to
move in one direction that cannot, during that period, change to
move back in another. Hence, price will follow and any counter move
in price will resolve back in the direction of the Primary which
reduces our risks for that trade. So our thought processes
should focus not on price action, or how we "feel" about
a signal, but on determining the motion of the Delineator.
At 11am,
signal weight remains moderately negative at -872, the Change +20.
A move in signal weight to -660 will take the current signal
out of confirmation...not ending it..only a slope change up can
do that.
May
12: 10:30 ENTER SHORT SIGNAL CONFIRMED AT SPY 90.75
The
Enter Short signal has confirmed. This is a middle signal
and has higher than normal risks associated with it because 1)it's
a middle signal and middle signals always carry more risk, 2) signal
weight can improve to less than -680 taking the signal out of confirmation,
3) the Change number is positive and indicates that the Primary
wants to rise. Nonetheless, the trading model is short SPY
at 90.75 with a GTC cover at 89.85 (using .90 cents now that SPY
is in the 90's to keep the profit target at 1%).
May
12: 10:14am EARLY ENTER SHORT SIGNAL ISSUED
Signal
weight has declined to -705 which has caused the Secondary to tick
to a negative slope causing an Early Enter Short signal to be issued
on the Primary. This is a middle signal and it will confirm
at 10:30am if signal weight remains greater than -680.
If the
signal confirms at 10:30, an additional risk associated with a middle
signal is the fact that for the Secondary to actually change slope,
signal weight will need to be -680 or more at the close and hence
this signal may flip in and out of confirmation.
May
12: 10am
After
opening strong, signal weight has reversed and now sits weakly negative
at -106, the Change +58. We can see that with the Change
number moderately strong, the Primary wants to rise and it will
take very strongly negative signal weight to keep it declining.
A slope change down on the Secondary today will generate a
middle short signal. With the Change number positive, the
risks associated with a middle signal being successful today
will be very high.
May
12: 9:45am
Signal
weight has reversed and it now +81, the Change +75. Any slope
change will be pushed out later in the day, possibly.
May
12: Opening Read
Strongly
positive signal weight of +1135 has the Change +129, the Slope -454.
An early slope change up can be projected to occur in 3.5 bars (Slope/Change=#
of bars).
May
11: Closing Read
The
Primary changed slope down today ending the long signal that was
triggered last Friday. The current slope of the Primary is
not confirmed by the Secondary, hence no short signal, the trading
model is neutral. If the Secondary turns down tomorrow, a
middle short signal will be issued on the Primary. Strong
negative signal weight averaged -1600 most of the day today. At
the close, the value of the Primary was +2701 and is declining by
-583 ticks each bar.
May
11: 3pm
Strong
negative signal weight of -1500, the Slope -555 but the Change now
only -17, so much of the push down in the Primary is nearly complete
as the Change nears zero. The value of the Primary is +3290
and is declining by -555 each bar. The trading model is neutral
as the Secondary is still up. Since the slope change/exit
long signal this morning, the range has obviously been way too narrow
to support any trading. Patience.
TECHNICAL
NOTE: Some users have reported outages with the data provider.
When you see the program acting funny..ie..signals that shouldn't
be there or slope changes you know could not have occurred, 1)close
your program and copy your continuumclient.ini file from your backup
folder to your Delinator folder overwriting the existing file. Occasionally,
qcharts goes down and their servers don't reset properly, and the
described procedure will solve any problems. The next version
of the software will use a different data provider that will not
be subject to these problems. If you have any questions about
this or experienced these issues today, please let me know.
May
11: 12:15pm
Strongly
negative signal weight of -1800 continues, the Change -90. The
gray dots indicate that the trading model is neutral (no position)
as the slope of the Secondary is up. Users should only have
a casual interest in the market today as no new signal is likely.
I strongly recommend to new users NOT to attempt to trade
at this time until you are fully integrated and acquired the needed
skills to trade unconfirmed signals.
I also
need to be away from the system for several hours due to insurance
adjusters coming to my property today regarding the fire. I
will make posts as I have the time to do so.
May
11: 11:30am EXIT LONG/SLOPE CHANGE DOWN CONFIRMED
AT SPY 91.80
The
exit signal has confirmed. Given the very strong negative
signal weight and the large Change number, a Lead Balloon scenario
exists. Any rally attempt will fail and will set up a move
back near the lows of the day.
No short
signal can be issued due to the fact that the Secondary is still
up. Downside targets can be identified by using your crosshair
tool on your program. Look for the most recent double and
single chevrons up: 90.17, 87.02 and look for levels.
May
11: 11:00am
The
early exit/ early slope change did not confirm as the required signal
weight was not present. However, as easily seen, the exit
long signal will absolutely confirm at 11:30 as the Slope is -122.
For the signal not to confirm, positive signal weight of +660
is needed.
May
11: 10:30am EARLY EXIT LONG / EARLY SLOPE CHANGE
DOWN SIGNAL ISSUED
An Early
Exit long / early slope change signal has been issued that will
confirm at 11am IF signal weight is less than -1780. On
the Trade Window notice that the SCP is "low". SCP
stands for Signal Confirmation Probability. It is a measure
of the amount of signal weight needed to confirm versus the current
level of signal weight. On your program, click on DELIN Settings
on the toolbar. On the right you'll see SCP Thresholds. These
levels are what set the SCP and relate to the spread between the
signal weight needed to confirm and the current level.
May
11: 10:00am
Signal
weight remains very strongly negative at -2124, the Change -186,
Slope +136. We can expect an early slope change down / exit
long signal during the next bar (Slope/Change=# of bars). One
of the great features of the Delineator is being able to jump right
back into the process after being away. You don't need to
read any newspapers or listen to any endless garble from the financial
press. All one need do is look at the Primary, the numbers
and viola...back in the saddle again.
May
11: Opening Read
First...many
thanks to all of you who had me in their thoughts and prayers last
week. This was the 4th fire to affect my home in 2 years and
it burned way too close for comfort...but I was prepared more than
most.
Very
strong negative signal weight of -1922 has the Change a whopping
-206, the Slope +331. We can expect an early slope change
within an hour this morning.
With
respect to the current price of SPY, the Plus a Buck strategy uses
+1% for its basic target. As SPY trades up and down, we need
to adjust our profit target accordingly. This will allow us
to keep the percentage relatively constant.
Due
to the fire in Santa Barbara that affected my home, data for May6-8th
are posted after the fact on May 9th.:
May
9th:
Since
the last post on May 5th at 1:40pm, the Primary changed slope twice--down
on May 6th and back up on May 7th. It then issued a long signal
on May 8th (as shown below) that confirmed at 12:00 at 92.24. The
signal achieved its profit target (1% or .90 cents) near the close
at 92.12 (high of 93.22). Signal weight was extremely strong
at +2663.
There's
another wild fire in my area so no posts for the rest of today,
possibly tomorrow.
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