|
Feb
12: Closing Read
Signal
weight became much less negative during the 2:30 bar, price closing
the opening gap. Signal weight closed at +134, the Change
+39. On Tuesday, signal weight will need to turn negative
or we'll see a slope change back up later in the day. The
trading model is short SPY at 107.10 with a gtc exit at 106.10
Feb
12: 11:30 Short Signal Confirmed at SPY 107.10
The
short has confirmed, the trading model is short SPY at 107.10 with
a gtc exit at 106.10.
Feb
12: 11am Slope Change Down Confirmed, Early Enter Short
signal issued.
The
slope change down has confirmed, an early enter short signal issued
that will confirm at 11:30am if signal weight exceeds -270
Feb
12: 10:30am Early Slope Change Down Signal issued.
Signal
weight continues very strongly negative. This signal will
confirm at 11am if signal weight exceeds -540. Expect a dual
signal at the beginning of the next bar..slope change/early enter
short.
Feb
12: 10am
Signal
weight -1965, Slope +35, Change -139. A slope change down
will trigger next bar at the current level of signal weight.
Feb
12: 9:42am
Refresh
your Delineator charts (hit F4), the data problem on the Secondary
is fixed.
Feb
12: Opening Read
Today
is OSI, Option Symbol Integration. It's a massive rewrite
of all option symbols. It's causing massive problems on all
exchanges. You'll notice that the Primary is correct today,
but the Secondary's value is not. I am told the data on the
Secondary will be regenerated this evening. Believe
any signals coming from the Primary. We know that the Slope
on the Secondary was -3.3 yesterday, and today's strong negative
signal weight will have it lower. So any short signal coming
today is correct.
Signal
weight -2119, TTXSlope next bar at this level of signal weight.
Feb
11: Closing Read
The
up cycle on the Primary continues, +3035 now. The Secondary
will be able to turn up tomorrow which would trigger a middle long
signal. The new and improved trading model won't take any
long signal tomorrow because the Secondary won't be able to close
at +75. But I won't be surprised to see the gap filled per
previous comments; 110.57 the set of double chevrons down.
Feb
11: 11:50
The
slope change down confirmed, then signal weight reversed and we're
going back up. If signal weight exceeds +1720, the Secondary
will turn up and a long signal may be issued. This is the
last posting for today as I have appointments away.
Feb
11: 11am Slope Change Down Signal Issued
Finally...the
slope change signal has issued and it will confirm at 11:30 if signal
weight is less than +350. Signal weight will need to
turn strongly negative soon if an early enter short signal
is to be issued. At the moment, signal weight is weakly negative
and could go either way. If it turns positive again, we could
get a slope change up and the cycle could continue as the value
of the Primary is +997 and could easily support a rise higher if
signal weight rises.
Feb
11: 10:30am
Signal
weight once again stayed below the level needed to confirm a slope
change. Your stats window now shows that signal weight will
need to be greater than -60 to confirm a slope change this bar.
Feb
11: 10am
The
slope change signal has not confirmed as signal weight moved back
below -740. Signal weight is now -665 and the slope change
down signal will confirm at 10:30 if signal weight exceeds -120.
Feb
11: Opening Read Early Slope change down signal issued
Signal
weight has opened moderately negative at -865 and an early slope
change down signal has issued that will confirm at 10am if signal
weight exceeds -760.
Feb
10: Closing Read
No
slope change today! Amazing! Signal weight stayed
positive enough to it from happening. So, obviously tomorrow
if signal weight opens negative, we'll get it tomorrow...the old
saying "it's not a slope change until it's a slope change."
The value of the Primary is now +1018 so it's risen 10k from
the lows.
Feb
10: 10:10am
Signal
weight now -1127, the Change -134 and TTXSlope=3 bars and a short
signal shortly thereafter. This is my last posting for the
day as I have appointments that will run all day today and tomorrow.
Feb
10: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened flat, the Change -85, TTXSlope at this level of
signal weight is 7 bars. The Primary will cross zero in value
during the next bar. Unless signal weight turns strongly positive,
expect a slope change down today and another short signal.
Feb
9: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed extremely positive at +1690, the Change now -3. Any
moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly
negative and the process of the next slope change will begin. As
the Slope value is currently +670, even with strongly negative signal
weight, it will take hours to turn the Primary down. There's
still very little chance the Secondary will turn up tomorrow, more
likely it will be in that position on Thursday if we get strongly
positive signal weight tomorrow. All things equal, I'd expect
a slope change down either late Wednesday or Thursday if this is
a typical cycle from over-extended levels on the Primary.
Feb
9: 2:30pm
Signal
weight rose back to +1600+ just after the last posting, price resolving
back in the direction of the Primary and making new highs. The
Primary's now at -2619 and rising by 672 ticks per bar. The
Primary will be approaching zero by the end of the day.
Feb
9: 11:30
Signal
weight has moderated somewhat but still strongly positive at +995,
the Change +15. Price has filled the opening gap and I'd still
expect a retest of today's highs. Until the Primary begins
to change slope, the target at the gap from 2/04 is still in play.
There is now a double chevron down at 107.28 so we have to
make it through that first.
Feb
9: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened extremely positive at +2086, the Change +115.
The trading model is neutral as it will take several days
of signal weight like today's to turn it up.
Feb
8: Closing Read
Unless
affected by exogenous events, I still expect to see this cycle on
the Primary play out for 2-3 days and reach at least zero if not
+3000 or so on the Primary. It's not unusual to see a larger
price moves the day after a slope change, witness the last one.
But that was in direction of the Secondary and this cycle
is obviously not confirmed. But if we open with strongly negative
signal weight, it's still going to take hours to turn the Primary
down.
Feb
8: 2:40
Signal
weight now -138 and the Change has reached zero. Pretty dull
bounce thus far as price reversed from the level of the single chevron
down from 02/04 at 107.4.
Feb
8: 11:30 Slope Change Confirms
The
slope change up on the Primary has confirmed. The trading
model is neutral as the slope on the Secondary is down.
Feb
8: 11am Early Slope Change Up signal issued
Signal
weight now +463, the early slope change signal has issued which
will confirm at 11:30 if signal weight exceeds -300. As the
Secondary is down, no long signal of course will be issued but I'd
expect a pretty decent bounce from the overextended level of the
Primary. There's also a nice big fat gap at SPY 109 which
should be filled.
Feb
8: 10am
Signal
weight a bit less negative at -733, the Change still +39.
Feb
8: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened at -942, the Change +39. With the value
of the Primary greatly overextended down, we should expect to see
a reversal at some point soon.
Feb
5: Closing Read
Signal
weight moderated during the 2:30 bar moving from -2000 to -1600
price reversing from the lows of the day. Signal weight however
only moderated, it never turned positive or less than -650 until
just before the close, as you'd expect. And the Primary is
-10,414!
We
should expect to see a slope change up on Monday. But if we
open with very strongly negative signal weight again, that will
certainly set up a balloon scenario which we did not get today.
To have had that today, the Slope would have needed to be
-80 or so and the change +100, where the next bar would be a slope
change.
|
