Closing Read Feb 5, 2010

Primary Trend=Down

Number of days=12

1st Target=108.08 Achieved 1/28

2nd Target=107.23 Achieved 1/29

3rd Target=103.74

PM Update Feb 5:  The Secondary lost 6 ticks to -215.  It will take several days of very strong signal weight to turn the Slope positive.

AM Update Feb 5:  The Secondary is gaining 38 ticks to -259 as the down cycle continues.

PM Update Feb 4:  The Secondary gained 120 ticks to -221 on extremely negative signal weight.  The gap at SPY 107.40-107.87 from November 9th has now been filled.

AM Update Feb 4:  The Secondary is gaining 107 ticks to -207 on extremely strong negative signal weight.

PM Update Feb 3:  The Secondary gained 32 ticks to -100.  It will take positive signal weight of more than 1500 to turn the Secondary up tomorrow.

AM Update Feb 3:  The Secondary is gaining 29 ticks to -98.  To turn up, positive signal weight of +1320 is needed.

PM Update Feb 2:  The Secondary lost 96 ticks to -69.  It may be possible for the Secondary to turn up fractionally tomorrow.

AM Update Feb 2:  The Secondary is losing 21 ticks to -143.  To turn up, positive weight of 2980 is needed.

AM Update Feb 1:  The Secondary is losing 102 ticks at the open to -185.  The Secondary cannot change slope for at least several days with very strongly positive signal weight.

Feb 5:  Closing Read

Signal weight moderated during the 2:30 bar moving from -2000 to -1600 price reversing from the lows of the day.  Signal weight however only moderated, it never turned positive or less than -650 until just before the close, as you'd expect.  And the Primary is -10,414!  

We should expect to see a slope change up on Monday.  But if we open with very strongly negative signal weight again, that will certainly set up a balloon scenario which we did not get today.  To have had that today, the Slope would have needed to be -80 or so and the change +100, where the next bar would be a slope change.

Feb 5:  1:55

Signal weight -2000, the Change now -2.  The 3rd target now seems easily in reach.

Feb 5:  1:25

Signal weight expanding more negative, price taking out the lows of the day.  If the Change turns negative again we'll most likely expand further down.

Feb 5:  12pm

Signal weight continues strongly negative at -1479, the Change now +30.  The value of the Primary is now in overextended territory at -8000 (-10.4k old).  If signal weight turns more strongly negative, we'll take out the lows of the day.  As the Secondary cannot turn back up, our next expected signal is still a short signal after the next unconfirmed up cycle on the Primary which probably won't complete until Thursday+- of next week.

Feb 5:  The feed is now up to date.

Feb 5:  Feed Update

Our feed is now running 7 minutes late.  They're working on it.  No idea why all these problems in the last two days.

Feb 5:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly negative at -1276, the Change +62 as the down cycle on the Primary continues.  It will be interesting to watch today as the value of the Primary will begin to reach overextended levels in about 3 hours.

Also, it appears the feed from the exchange is running 4 minutes late this morning.  I'm sure at some point that will correct itself.

SERVERS BACK UP..PLEASE CHANGE YOUR SERVER ID TO 38.109.72.3 FOLLOWING THE STEPS BELOW.

Feb 4:  Closing Read

Signal weight held extreme negative levels all day closing at -2580, the Change -1.5.  The value of the Primary is not yet over-extended yet at -4790 but since it's gaining by 741 ticks each bar, it soon will be.  We know that any moderation in signal weight will turn the Change strongly up and start the next slope change.  However, since the Slope is -740 it's going to take a many hours to turn -740 to zero if we see Change levels of +100 - +150 tomorrow.  The most likely scenario is a slope change up Monday or Tuesday if signal weight doesn't reverse.  If we plunge to the 3rd target, I'd be a buyer for a nice reversal on extreme weakness if we get a balloon scenario.

Feb 4:  11am

I made a mistake in the price level of the profit target in an earlier post today.  The enter short signal came in yesterday at 109.55 and the profit target was 108.55 which was achieved during the opening bar of the day today.

At 11am, the trading model is neutral having achieved its profit target.  Signal weight is extremely negative at -2383, the Change -46.   This is my last post today.  If you cannot log in please review the SERVER FIX posting below.

Feb 4:  10:30

PLEASE SEE SERVER FIX BELOW IF YOU CAN'T LOG ON.

Signal weight is extremely negative at -2344, the Change -56 and the trading model has achieved the profit target at 107.55 during the 10:30 bar.

Feb 4:  Server Fix

I found a quick fix.

1) go to your delineator folder.

2) double click on the application "NanexxConfig.exe"

3) copy this sever number to each of the three spots where server number appear:  38.105.228.237

4) DO NOT CLICK 'Set All To Use This IP"

5) once you have 38.105.228.237 in each of the three server lines, hit "save configuration" then close the window.

6) restart your program and let me know if you are able to connect. I have been successful.

Feb 4:  Pre Opening

There seems to be an issue with our server this morning. I was logged in but it went down at 9:08am est. I expect it back up but we'll see....

9:28am:  I am now told there's some internet issue between our server and the exchanges, people are working on it.

9:35am:  Connections are still down...no estimated time for reestablishment.  All we can do is keep trying to connect every 10 mins or so.

9:44am:  I am now being told we could be down all day as this seems to be out of the hands of our service provider.

9:54am:  The advance decline line shows that signal weight is somewhere around -2000, so I'd expect the Change to be -65 or so right now.  The down cycle on the Primary continues lower.  I never made a secondary trade yesterday at or above SPY 110.

Feb 3:  Closing Read

Signal weight moderated somewhat closing at -702, the Change now only -3.  We'll need negative signal weight tomorrow otherwise the Change will rise and the Slope will begin to turn back over, but slowly.

I will be gone almost the entire day tomorrow.

Feb 3:  1:14pm

Signal weight -763, the Change -32, price testing 110.  I'm watching the SPY Accumulator off the Advanced page and waiting to see it change slope back down before starting a secondary trade.  There's little chance the Primary could change slope back up today, hence price will resolve back in the direction of the Primary.

1:33:  Signal weight turning more negative again, Accumulator not yet giving a signal.  I've got a meeting in twenty minutes again so my next post will be after the close.

Feb 3:  12pm  Enter Short confirmed at SPY

The enter short has confirmed, the trading model is short SPY at 109.55 with a gtc exit at 108.55.  Signal weight has returned to more strongly negative numbers at -1285, the Change strong at -85.  Any move back in price to 110.10+- during the next two bars is a secondary trading opportunity provided that signal weight remains greater than -850 and the Change >-50.  A downside target for this cycle on the Primary would be the last low or 107.50-108, the lows from Feb 1.

Feb 3:  11:30  Slope Change Down Confirms, Early Enter Short issued

As expected, the slope change down has confirmed and an early enter short signal has issued that will confirm at 12pm if signal weight exceeds -580.  As the Secondary is in a confirmed down cycle, the trading model will take this signal.

Feb 3:  11am Early Slope Change Down Signal issued

The early slope change signal has issued which will confirm at 11:30 if signal weight exceeds -680.  

Feb 3:  10:30am

Signal weight returning to more strongly negative levels.  An early slope change down signal is expected within an hour.

Feb 3:  10am

Signal weight now -83, the Change -89.  We're still anticipating a slope change down today unless signal weight turns strongly positive.  The value of the Primary is now +6377.

Feb 3:  Opening Read

Signal weight -1034, the Change -137 and TTXSlope=1.8 bars at this level of signal weight.  The next signal will most likely be a short signal later today if signal weight remains negative.

Feb 2:  Closing Read

Very strongly positive signal weight persisted most of the day, ending at +1645 the Change -2 which has been negative most of the day today.  It may be possible for the Secondary to turn fractionally up tomorrow if equally positive signal weight is seen.  If the Secondary turns up tomorrow, a middle long Newman signal will issue.

Feb 2:  10am

Signal weight -154 the Change -75.  The trading model is neutral.  A slope change down and new short signal is possible today.  This is my last posting until this evening.  Accumulator pages are updating again.

Feb 1:  Closing

My main computer is totally down and I won't be able to be back online until sometime Wednesday.  I'll give it a shot tomorrow morning but I am not optimistic things will be back online.  The worst of it is the loss of Accumulator data which cannot be recovered.

Feb 1:  10:21

Signal weight continues very strongly positive at +1572.  We can expect somewhat of a recovery bounce but until we see the Secondary in a position to turn back up, any bounce is simply that.  We can also expect to see the value of the Primary reach at least zero on this cycle.

Feb 1:  Opening Read

Signal weight has opened strongly positive at +1402.  As the Secondary is down and cannot turn back up today or tomorrow, the trading model is neutral.

Jan 29:  Closing Read

Signal weight totally reversed mid-day and at the close was about an hour from another slope change down.  The November 2nd double chevron up at 103.74 looks like a very likely target.

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