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Jan
8: Closing Read
Signal
weight finally moved above +100 during the final half hour of the
day. Monday, we'll either see a continuation of the down cycle
on the Primary or signal weight will open positive and another up
cycle will begin. Signal weight doesn't seem to be able to
hold a negative level for very long.
Jan
8: 2:45pm
No
significant change from the last posting. I'm away for the
balance of the day. I'll update the site this evening including
comments on X.
Jan
8: 1pm
Signal
weight +29 and TTXSlope=50 bars (yawn).
Jan
8: 10am
Once
again, signal weight could not stay very negative for very long.
Still, the possibility of a slope change up today is remote
unless signal weight turns strongly positive.
Jan
8: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened moderately negative at -643, the Change -45. Unless
signal weight turns strongly positive, we should expect the Primary
to continue lower to complete a down cycle. However, over
the past few days, signal weight has not been able to get very strongly
negative for too long. As traders, we must expect that these
cycles will play themselves out and our disciplines keep us focused
on the motion of the Primary, not on the fluctuations in price,
as our directional indicators. Patience always wins.
Jan
7: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed +649, the Change +4. The upside bias on the
Secondary is certainly manifesting itself from a price perspective.
We may very well get a slope change up on the Primary tomorrow
but signal weight will need to expand above +1000 to generate another
long signal.
Jan
7: 11:15am
Signal
weight has turned weakly positive at +82. It's unlikely we'll
see a slope change back up unless some exogenous event moves signal
weight very strongly positive. Otherwise, expect the down
cycle to complete itself over the next 2-3 days and the value of
the Primary to go back under zero.
Jan
7: 10am
The
slope change down/exit long signal has confirmed at 113.20. For
the Secondary to turn down today, signal weight will need to drop
to -1300.
Jan
7: 9:50
The
exit long will confirm at 10am with signal weight now -600.
Jan
7: Opening Read
Signal
weight flat, the early exit long is still active and will confirm
at 10am if signal weight is less than +140
Jan
6: Closing Read
Signal
weight held in most of the day just positive enough to keep the
Primary from turning over. Tomorrow, we're in the same boat
as this morning as signal weight will need to stay positive to prevent
this cycle from ending. But, as I'm fond of saying, a slope
change isn't a slope change until it's a slope change.
Jan
6: 10:20
Signal
weight will need to go to >+800 today to make the Primary rise
further otherwise this cycle is over. I'm gone for the balance
of the day as I have a commitment on the first tee.
Jan
6: 10am
The
exit long did not confirm, but unless signal weight gets more positive,
it most likely will within an hour or so. Keep an eye on your
Stats window to see the level of signal weight needed. To
confirm this bar, signal weight must be less than +180.
Jan
6: Opening Read
The
early exit long signal has issued that will confirm at 10am if signal
weight is greater than -140.
Jan
5: Closing Read
Signal
weight closed pretty much at the high level of the day, +600, the
Change now only -4. With the value of the Slope only +40,
any negative signal weight in the morning will trigger a slope change
down rather quickly.
Jan
5:
2:30pm
Signal
weight +276 TTXSlope=2 bars. Signal weight will have to turn
negative to generate a slope change during the next bar or two.
Jan
5: 1pm
Signal
weight +472, TTXSlope=5 bars. The value of the Primary is
now +5200 so we're 2/3'rd through this cycle and the next move in
signal weight will either reverse the Primary or move it to it's
final level for this cycle.
Jan
5: 10:45am
Signal
weight now +488, the Change -45. The value of the Primary
now +4200.
Jan
5: Opening Read
Signal
weight has opened weakly negative at -174, the Change -97, TTXSlope=4
bars.
Jan
4: Closing Read
Signal
weight maintained extreme levels most of the day, closing at +1858,
the Change +8. The Primary is now +3200 rising at 500 ticks
per bar. So, regardless of signal weight in the first couple
of bars tomorrow, we should see +4500-5100 early tomorrow. Obviously,
with the Change only +8 at +1858 signal weight, any moderation in
signal weight will move the Change to large numbers and "the
process of the next slope change will begin". You heard
this before how many times? As the Secondary's up, our expectation
should be biased accordingly.
Jan
4: 2:45pm
Signal
weight +1739, the Change now in single digits at +9. Looking
for new upside targets for SPY requires us to move to the Secondary,
change numbars to 500 and remove the fast Delineator from the Chart
Options so that we can see the price bars. The next set of
targets for a continuation of the upside move over the next several
weeks would be 117.50-130.74.
Jan
4: 12:30pm
We're
not really up as much as it looks. I consider the close on
Friday to be 112.30, not 111.44. Hence, we're really up only
.89% on SPY not nearly twice that amount. I'm off to the gym,
next posting in a couple of hours.
Jan
4: 11:30am
Signal
weight continues extremely positive at +1949 (+2533 old), the Change
+64. With this extreme level of signal weight, the Slope will
reach its maximum level rather quickly. We should expect to
see the Primary reach a value of +5000 or so, near the prior level.
Jan
4: 10:30 Enter Long Confirmed at SPY 113.08
Well,
the signal has confirmed and it's good to see the software got this
signal correct. Notice there's no early slope change or early
enter. But we know what is what by the numbers of course.
The trading model is long SPY at 113.08 with a GTC exit at
114.08.
Jan
4: 10am Early Slope Change/Early Enter Long signal issued
Well..it
appears there's a small bug in the software. It should have
issued an early slope change up and an early enter long signal as
the Slope value was +90 at the bar change. There cannot be
a signal generated at the close which there wasn't on Friday, but
the Trade Window shows that there was. We know better of course
as we focus on the numbers.
So,
at this time, we should be under an Early Enter Long signal that
will confirm at 10:30am if signal weight is +1570 or more, otherwise
it will confirm at 11am if signal weight remains positive.
Jan
4: Opening Read
As I
suspected on Friday, the big drop during the last 10 minutes was
an averation due to the reasons I gave on the 31st's closing read.
There is no early enter anything at this time. With
signal weight +1882, the Slope -10 and the Change +119, we know
that an early slope change up and another long signal will be generated
within the next hour.
9:50am:
Another thing: consider that the actual closing price
of SPY was 112.30, not 111.44...so things aren't really up as much
as they appear.
Dec
31: Closing Read
Looks
like someone ran all the stops during the last 10 minutes of trading.
It would have to be the least liquid 10 minute period during
the entire year. I'd put this one in the 'ignore' category
until we see what signal weight looks like on Monday as it's a real
day. I guess once in a blue moon....wait a minute...tonight
there's a blue
moon! Happy New year everyone!
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